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Flood frequency analysis for alterations of extreme maximum water levels in the Pearl River Delta

机译：珠江三角洲极端最大水位变化的洪水频率分析

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摘要

Based on the annual maximum water level record spanning about 60 years at 34 gauging stations, we conduct flood frequency analysis in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The GEV model performs sound estimation with the correlation coefficient at most stations larger than 0.99. To better understand the flood risk especially in ungauged regions, the spatial distribution of flood-stage is displayed for three given return periods, 10-year, 20-year and 50-year. Similar pattern can be identified for different return periods except the difference in magnitude, which generally exhibits a decreasing trend from the upper region to offshore area with a scope of about 2-9 m. Additionally, a comparison between pre-1980 and post-1980 is carried out to quantify the flood-stage alteration. The results show that most stations display increasing flood risk except for some stations in the upper estuaries, which experienced slight water level decline. Particularly, the lower part of the PRD is vulnerable to the most severe flood-stage increment. The estimated extreme water level increases by 0.35 m (14.96%), 0.59 m (21.23%) and 1.06 m (29.96%) on average at stations corresponding to 10-year, 20-year and 50-year return period, respectively.
机译：基于34个测量站约60年的年度最高水位记录，我们在珠江三角洲（PRD）进行了泛洪频率分析，具有广义极值（GEV）分布。 GEV模型执行声音估计时，大多数电台的相关系数都大于0.99。为了更好地了解洪水风险，尤其是在无人值守的地区，在三个给定的回报期（10年，20年和50年）中显示了洪水阶段的空间分布。除了幅度上的差异外，可以针对不同的返回期识别出类似的模式，幅度上的差异通常表现出从上部区域到近海区域的减小趋势，范围约为2-9 m。此外，在1980年之前和1980年之后进行了比较，以量化洪水阶段的变化。结果表明，除了上河口的某些站的水位略有下降外，大多数站的洪水风险都在增加。特别是，珠三角的下部很容易遭受最严重的洪水期增加。在对应于10年，20年和50年回归期的站点，估计的极端水位平均分别增加了0.35 m（14.96％），0.59 m（21.23％）和1.06 m（29.96％）。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean Engineering》 |2017年第1期|117-132|共16页
  • 作者

    Zhang Wei; Cao Yu; Zhu Yuliang; Wu Yao; Ji Xiaomei; He Yong; Xu Yanwen; Wang Weiguang;

  • 作者单位

    Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China|Hohai Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Coastal Disasters & Def, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China|Hohai Univ, Coll Harbor Coastal & Offshore Engn, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Hohai Univ, Coll Harbor Coastal & Offshore Engn, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Hohai Univ, Coll Harbor Coastal & Offshore Engn, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Hohai Univ, Coll Harbor Coastal & Offshore Engn, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Hohai Univ, Coll Harbor Coastal & Offshore Engn, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Minist Water Resources, Key Lab Pearl River Estuarine Dynam & Associated, Pearl River Water Resources Commiss, Pearl River Sci Res Inst, Guangzhou 510611, Guangdong, Peoples R China;

    Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China|Hohai Univ, Coll Harbor Coastal & Offshore Engn, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China|Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Coastal flooding; Return period; Water level; GEV model; Pearl River Delta;

    机译：沿海洪水;恢复期;水位;GEV模型;珠江三角洲;

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