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A collision-allowed approach for probabilistic assessment of riser interference

机译:碰撞允许的概率评估立管干扰

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摘要

Riser interference assessment is especially crucial in deep water, as the compliancy of risers generally increases with length. This paper presents a probabilistic approach for riser interference analysis, taking into account the stochastic nature of the wave forces. The methodology is founded on the collision-allowed principle, in which infrequent collisions are permitted, provided that structural integrity is not compromised. The collision analysis is traditionally separated into the local and global stages. The procedure for local impact analysis is well established in the literature. For the global analysis, one challenge aspect is that very few collisions, if any, can be observed in a simulation of a practical duration. This difficulty is herein addressed by extrapolating the pre-collision response characteristics to predict the statistics of the critical collision parameters such as impact velocity and kissing angle. This task is made complicated by significant nonlinearities in the loads and responses. The results of the global and local analyses are subsequently combined to evaluate the yield and fatigue limit states. The proposed approach is implemented on a top-tensioned riser system, and it is found to yield good estimates of the system reliability, based on comparison with extensive Monte Carlo simulations.
机译:立管干扰评估在深水中尤其重要,因为立管的顺应性通常会随着长度的增加而增加。考虑到波浪力的随机性,本文提出了一种用于概率分析的立管干扰方法。该方法基于碰撞允许原理,只要不损害结构完整性,就允许不频繁碰撞。传统上,碰撞分析分为局部阶段和全局阶段。本地影响分析的程序已在文献中充分确立。对于全局分析,一个挑战是,在实际持续时间的模拟中几乎看不到任何碰撞(如果有的话)。在此,可以通过外推碰撞前的响应特性来预测关键碰撞参数(例如撞击速度和接吻角)的统计信息来解决此难题。负载和响应中明显的非线性使该任务变得复杂。随后将整体分析和局部分析的结果组合起来,以评估屈服和疲劳极限状态。所提出的方法在顶部张紧式立管系统上实施,并且与大量的蒙特卡洛模拟进行了比较,发现该方法可以很好地估计系统的可靠性。

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