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Some uncertainties associated with wind and wave description and their importance for engineering applications

机译:与风浪描述有关的一些不确定性及其在工程应用中的重要性

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摘要

In the context of the joint ISSC-ITTC UMSOS (Uncertainty Modelling for Ships and Offshore Structures) Workshop some uncertainties of wind and wave data and models are presented. The study aims at demonstrating the importance of uncertainties related to wind and wave description for engineering applications and not at systematic quantification of all sources of uncertainties. The inherent variability and epistemic uncertainties associated with wind and wave data, including model tests, are discussed and their consequences on specification of design criteria are illustrated by examples. Uncertainties and limitations of the current wave database for ships are highlighted. Modelling of wind and waves often employs a mixture of mathematical, probabilistic, empirical and statistical models. Some uncertainties related to these models are presented having engineering applications in focus. Particular attention is given to stationarity or non-stationarity of sea states and wind fields, sampling variability, directionality of wind and waves and squalls. Considering waves generated in test tanks, a review of uncertainty analysis recommended in the current ITTC guidelines is given and an error analysis to be used in the model tests is suggested.
机译:在ISSC-ITTC UMSOS联合研讨会(船舶和近海结构的不确定性建模)研讨会的背景下,提出了一些风浪数据和模型的不确定性。该研究旨在证明与风浪描述有关的不确定性在工程应用中的重要性,而不是对所有不确定性来源进行系统量化。讨论了与风和波浪数据(包括模型测试)相关的固有变异性和认识不确定性,并通过示例说明了它们对设计标准规范的影响。重点介绍了船舶当前波浪数据库的不确定性和局限性。风浪建模通常采用数学,概率,经验和统计模型的混合。提出了与这些模型有关的一些不确定性,重点是工程应用。特别注意海况和风场的平稳性或非平稳性,采样的可变性,风浪和狂风的方向性。考虑到试验罐中产生的波浪,对当前ITTC指南中推荐的不确定性分析进行了回顾,并提出了在模型试验中使用的误差分析。

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