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Oil spill forecast model based on uncertainty analysis: A case study of Dalian Oil Spill

机译：基于不确定性分析的溢油预测模型-以大连溢油为例

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摘要

In this article an oil spill forecast model based on uncertainty analysis (OSMUA) is developed by incorporating HSY algorithm into the traditional Lagrangian oil spill model. While the traditional model focuses on simulating the trajectory of oil spill, the uncertainty-based model can present the spatial distribution of model parameters so that the reliability of the simulation could be improved. To assess the effectiveness of OSMUA, the Dalian Oil Spill accident on 16 July, 2010 is chosen as a case. By applying HSY in the calibration of oil spill parameters and then analyzing the uncertainty of the parameters, OSMUA gets reasonable simulation result, from which the most likely amount of oil spill in this accident is also determined.
机译：本文通过将HSY算法纳入传统的拉格朗日溢油模型，建立了基于不确定性分析（OSMUA）的溢油预测模型。传统的模型侧重于模拟漏油轨迹，而基于不确定性的模型可以呈现模型参数的空间分布，从而可以提高模拟的可靠性。为了评估OSMUA的有效性，以2010年7月16日的大连溢油事故为例。通过将HSY应用于溢油参数的校准，然后分析参数的不确定性，OSMUA得到合理的模拟结果，从中也可以确定该事故中最有可能发生的溢油量。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean Engineering》 |2012年第11期|p.206-212|共7页
  • 作者

    Hong-Lei Xu; Ji-Ning Chen; Shou-Dong Wang; Yi Liu;

  • 作者单位

    School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Peking 100084, PR China,Transport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Peking 100028, PR China;

    School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Peking 100084, PR China;

    Transport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Peking 100028, PR China;

    School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Peking 100084, PR China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    oil spill model; uncertainty analysis; HSY algorithm; dalian;

    机译：溢油模型;不确定性分析;HSY算法;大连;

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