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Calibration and validation for the vessel maneuvering prediction (VMP) model using AIS data of vessel encounters

机译：使用船只遭遇的AIS数据对船只操纵预测（VMP）模型进行校准和验证

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摘要

The Vessel Maneuvering Prediction (VMP) model, which was developed in a previous work with the aim of predicting the interaction between vessels in ports and waterways, is optimized in this paper by considering the relative position and vessel size (length and beam). The calibration is carried out using AIS data of overtaking vessels in the port of Rotterdam. The sensitivity analysis of the optimal parameters shows the robustness of the calibrated VMP model. For the validation, the optimal parameters are used to simulate the whole path of overtaken vessels and vessels in head-on encounters. Compared to the MS data, the validation results show that the different deviations in longitudinal direction range from 33 m to 112 m, which is less than 5% of the waterway stretch. Both the calibration and validation show that the VMP model has the potential to simulate vessel traffic in ports and waterways.
机译：本文通过考虑相对位置和船只尺寸（长度和横梁）来优化在先前工作中开发的旨在预测港口和水道中船只之间相互作用的船只操纵预测（VMP）模型。使用鹿特丹港超车船只的AIS数据进行校准。最佳参数的灵敏度分析显示了校准后的VMP模型的鲁棒性。为了进行验证，最佳参数用于模拟超车船只和正面相遇船只的整个路径。与MS数据相比，验证结果表明，纵向的不同偏差在33 m至112 m的范围内，小于水路伸展的5％。校准和验证都表明，VMP模型具有模拟港口和水路中船舶通行的潜力。

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