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Evaluation of ship collision risk assessments using environmental stress and collision risk models

机译：使用环境压力和碰撞风险模型评估船舶碰撞风险评估

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摘要

In Korea, ship collisions represent the majority of marine accidents and are substantially more likely in port areas where ship traffic is dense. To improve the safe navigation of vessels, the Korea Maritime Safety Audit (KMSA) has been conducting maritime traffic flow evaluations based on the Environmental Stress (ES) model since 2009. The ES model quantifies the subjective stress felt by the navigator; however, it does not reflect the relative bearing between ships. Risk assessment models using the ship domain are designed to consider the conditions of a potential encounter with a target ship and the possibility of avoidance action. However, even if the target ship does not invade the domain of the own ship, collision may occur at the closest point of approach (CPA). Therefore, in this study, the Collision Risk (CoRI) model which moves the existing ship domain to the CPA is applied to compare the collision risk according to the navigator's awareness of the vessel encounter conditions. The results demonstrate that the CoRI model is a better risk assessment method than the ES model because it sensitively reflects the risks due to collision avoidance action, such as course alteration and speed changes.
机译：在韩国，撞船事故是大多数海上事故的发生，在船舶交通密集的港口地区，发生撞船事故的可能性更大。为了改善船舶的安全航行，韩国海事安全审计署（KMSA）自2009年以来一直在基于环境压力（ES）模型进行海上交通流量评估。ES模型量化了导航员感受到的主观压力；但是，它不能反映船舶之间的相对方位。设计使用船域的风险评估模型时要考虑目标船可能遭遇的情况以及避免行动的可能性。但是，即使目标舰没有入侵本舰的域，也可能在最接近进近点（CPA）发生碰撞。因此，在本研究中，根据导航员对船只遭遇情况的了解，应用了将现有船舶域移至CPA的碰撞风险（CoRI）模型来比较碰撞风险。结果表明，CoRI模型比ES模型是一种更好的风险评估方法，因为它可以灵敏地反映由于避免撞车动作（例如，航向变更和速度变化）而产生的风险。

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