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Regional long-term extreme wave analysis using hindcast data from the South Atlantic Ocean

机译：区域长期极端波分析，使用南大西洋的Hindcast数据

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摘要

Long-term extreme wave analysis is performed using a spatial approach applied to hindcast data, to study the sensitivity of extrapolated quantiles of significant wave height to different hindcast calibration methods and distribution functions. The probabilistic moments and L-moments are analyzed, as well as several extreme value distribution functions. The estimation of extreme values is addressed in two parts: (1) numerical modeling of wind and wave hindcasts with improved accuracy under extreme conditions; (2) investigation and tests of fit of extreme value distributions using the Regional Frequency Analysis. Therefore, the main goal of this paper is to show how hindcast data calibrated to account for extreme events can influence and improve return value estimates. Results show that simplistic calibrations, such as a linear regression applied to input winds and quick modifications on the numerical wave model, do not significantly improve the representation of the peak of storms which has a small impact on the reliability of shape parameters of the quantile functions. The construction of a new wave hindcast using satellite winds inside extreme cyclones led to a reduction of the bias at higher percentiles and additional improvement of the distribution tail and its shape. These elements, combined with a robust extreme analysis methodology, such as the Regional Frequency Analysis, and thorough choice of the distribution function, produced reliable spatial return values of significant wave height.
机译：使用应用于HindCast数据的空间方法进行长期极端波分析，研究外推的显着波浪高度的敏感性到不同的HindCast校准方法和分配功能。分析概率矩和L-矩，以及几个极值分布函数。极值的估计在两部分中得到解决：（1）风和波形HindCasts的数值建模，在极端条件下提高了精度的提高; （2）使用区域频率分析调查和测试极值分布的拟合。因此，本文的主要目标是展示如何校准的HindCast数据以考虑极端事件可以影响和改善返回值估计。结果表明，在数值波模型上应用于输入风的线性回归等简单校准，不显着提高风暴峰的表示，这对定量函数的形状参数的可靠性产生了小的影响。在极端旋风内使用卫星风的新波Hindcast的构建导致偏差降低，百分比的偏差和分布尾的额外改善及其形状。这些元素，结合强大的极端分析方法，如区域频率分析，以及彻底选择分布函数，产生了显着波浪高度的可靠的空间返回值。

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  • 来源
    《Ocean Engineering》 |2019年第may1期|202-212|共11页
  • 作者

    Campos R. M.; Guedes Soares C.; Alves J. H. G. M.; Parente C. E.; Guimaraes L. G.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Lisbon Inst Super Tecn Ctr Marine Technol & Ocean Engn CENTEC P-1049001 Lisbon Portugal;

    Univ Lisbon Inst Super Tecn Ctr Marine Technol & Ocean Engn CENTEC P-1049001 Lisbon Portugal|Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro COPPE Programa Engn Ocean Cidade Univ BR-21945970 Rio De Janeiro RJ Brazil;

    Syst Res Grp Inc 5830 Univ Res Court College Pk MD 20740 USA|NOAA Environm Modeling Ctr NCEP 5830 Univ Res Court College Pk MD 20740 USA;

    Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro COPPE Programa Engn Ocean Cidade Univ BR-21945970 Rio De Janeiro RJ Brazil;

    Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro COPPE Programa Engn Ocean Cidade Univ BR-21945970 Rio De Janeiro RJ Brazil;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Extreme waves; Regional frequency analysis; Hindcast uncertainty; Long-term distributions; Extreme value analysis;

    机译：极端波;区域频率分析;Hindcast不确定性;长期分布;极值分析;

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