...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Oceanographic Literature Review >Using a WRF-ADCIRC ensemble and track clustering to investigate storm surge hazards and inundation scenarios associated with hurricane irma
【24h】

Using a WRF-ADCIRC ensemble and track clustering to investigate storm surge hazards and inundation scenarios associated with hurricane irma

机译：使用WRF-ADCIRC集合和跟踪集群来调查与Rurricane Irma相关的风暴浪涌危险和淹没情景

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

This article investigates combining a WRF-ADCIRC ensemble with track clustering to evaluate how uncertainties in tropical cyclone-induced storm tide (surge + tide) predictions vary in space and time and to explore whether this method can help elucidate inundation hazard scenarios. The method is demonstrated for simulations of Hurricane Irma (2017) initialized at 1200 UTC 5 September, approximately 5 days before Irma's Florida landfalls, and 1200 UTC 8 September. Mixture models are used to partition the WRF ensemble tracks from 5 and 8 September into six and five clusters, respectively. Inundation is evaluated in two affected regions: southwest (south and west Florida) and northeast (northeast Florida through South Carolina). For the 5 September simulations, inundation in the southwest region varies significantly across the ensemble, indicating low forecast confidence. However, clustering highlights the areas of inundation risk in south and west Florida associated with different storm tracks. In the northeast region, every cluster has high inundation probabilities along a similar coastal stretch, indicating high confidence at a ～5-day lead time that this area will experience inundation. For the 8 September simulations, track and inundation in both regions vary less across the ensemble, but clustering remains useful for distinguishing among flooding scenarios. These results demonstrate the potential of dynamical TC-surge ensembles to illuminate important aspects of storm surge risk, including highlighting regions of high forecast confidence where preparations can reliably be initiated early. The analysis also shows how clustering can augment probabilistic hazard forecasts by elucidating inundation scenarios and variability across a surge ensemble.
机译：本文调查了与轨道聚类的WRF-Adcirc集合组合，以评估热带旋风诱导的暴风雨（浪涌+潮）预测的不确定性在空间和时间内各不相同，并探索该方法是否可以帮助阐明淹没危险场景。该方法是对飓风IRMA（2017）的模拟，于9月5日在IRMS的佛罗里达州的1200年9月5日初始化，大约5天，9月8日，1200 UTC。混合模型用于将9月5日和8日的WRF集合轨道分别分别分为六个和五个集群。淹没在两个受影响的地区评估：西南（南部和西佛罗里达州）和东北（佛罗里达州东北部通过南卡罗来纳州）。在9月5日模拟中，西南地区的淹没在整个集合中的含量显着变化，表明预测信心低。然而，聚类突出了与不同风暴轨道相关的南部和西佛罗里达州的淹没风险领域。在东北地区，每个群体沿着类似的沿海延伸具有高淹没概率，表明该领域将遭遇淹没的〜5天的提前时间充满信心。对于9月8日的模拟，两个地区的轨道和淹没在整体上不等，但聚类对于区分洪水方案仍然有用。这些结果表明了动态TC-Surge合奏的潜力，以照亮风暴浪涌风险的重要方面，包括突出高预测的区域，其中准备早期可靠地启动。分析还显示了聚集可以通过阐明浪涌情景和浪涌集合的可变性来增强概率危险预测。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Oceanographic Literature Review》 |2020年第9期|1896-1896|共1页
  • 作者

    A.M. Kowaleski; R.E. Morss; D. Ahijevych; K.R. Fossell;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science The Pennsylvania State University University Park PA United States;

    Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science The Pennsylvania State University University Park PA United States;

    Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science The Pennsylvania State University University Park PA United States;

    Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science The Pennsylvania State University University Park PA United States;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号