Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher-Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector

C. Dalelane; M. Dobrynin; K. Frohlich

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Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher-Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector

机译：北大西洋地区北大西洋地区平均海平面压力变异性高阶模式改善了季节性预测

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The variability of the sea level pressure in the North Atlantic sector is the most important driver of weather and climate in Europe. The main mode of this variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explains up to 50% of the total variance. Other modes, known as the Scandinavian index, East Atlantic, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern, complement the variability of the sea level pressure, thereby influencing the European climate. It has been shown previously that a seasonal prediction system with enhanced winter NAO skill due to ensemble subsampling entails an improved prediction of the surface climate variables as well. Here, we show that a refined subselection procedure that accounts both for the NAO index and for the three additional modes of sea level pressure variability is able to further increase the prediction skill of wintertime mean sea level pressure, near-surface temperature, and precipitation across Europe.

机译：北大西洋部门海平面压力的可变性是欧洲天气和气候最重要的司机。这种变异性的主要模式，北大西洋振荡（NAO），占总方差的50％。其他方式，被称为斯堪的纳维亚指数，东部大西洋和东部大西洋/西俄罗斯模式，补充了海平面压力的可变性，从而影响了欧洲气候。以前所示的是，由于集成的子采样引起的冬季NAO技能具有增强的季节预测系统，因此也需要改进的表面气候变量。在这里，我们表明，对Nao指数和三种额外的海平压力变化模式的精致的消退程序程序能够进一步提高冬季平均水平压力，近表面温度和沉淀的预测技能欧洲。

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《Oceanographic Literature Review》 |2020年第10期|2108-2108|共1页
作者
C. Dalelane; M. Dobrynin; K. Frohlich;
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Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) Offenbach Germany;

Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) Offenbach Germany;

Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) Offenbach Germany;

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1. Oceanic control of decadal North Atlantic sea level pressure variability in winter [J] . Latif M., Roeckner E., Arpe K. Geophysical Research Letters . 2000,第5期

机译：冬季十年北大西洋海平面气压变化的海洋控制
2. Seasonal predictability of the winter NAO from north Atlantic sea surface temperatures - art. no. 2049 [J] . Saunders MA., Qian BD. Geophysical Research Letters . 2002,第22期

机译：从北大西洋海表温度看冬季NAO的季节可预测性-艺术。没有。 2049年
3. Machine Learning Models for the Seasonal Forecast of Winter Surface Air Temperature in North America [J] . Qi Feng Qian, Xiao Jing Jia, Hai Lin Earth and Space Science . 2020,第8期

机译：北美冬季表面空气温度季节性预测的机器学习模型
4. Seasonal Simulations of a Coupled Ice-ocean Model in the Bohai Sea and North Yellow Sea since the Winter of 1997/1998 [C] . Yu Liu, Qinzheng Liu, Jie Su, ISOPE-2011 Maui;International offshore and polar engineering conference . 2011

机译：1997/1998年冬季以来渤海和北黄海冰海耦合模式的季节性模拟
5. Atlantic sea surface temperature variability and its relationship to overlying air temperature, sea level pressure, and 500 MB teleconnections [D] . Marshall, Mary Louise. 1994

机译：大西洋海表温度的变化及其与上层气温，海平面压力和500 MB远程连接的关系
6. Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi‐decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution [O] . Antje Weisheimer, Nathalie Schaller, Christopher OReilly, -1

机译：二十世纪的大气季节预报：冬季北大西洋涛动（NAO）预报技能的年代际变化及其对极端事件归因的潜在价值
7. Complex systems modelling for statistical forecasting of winter North Atlantic atmospheric variability: A new approach to North Atlantic seasonal forecasting [O] . Richard J. Hall, Hua‐Liang Wei, Edward Hanna 2019

机译：冬季大西洋大气变异性统计预测复杂系统建模：北大西洋季节性预测的一种新方法

Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher-Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector

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