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Methods for predicting berm height at Temporarily Open/Closed Estuaries

机译：预测临时开放/封闭河口的药物高度的方法

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This study investigates the berm crest elevation at 20 Temporarily Open/Closed Estuaries (TOCEs) along the wave-dominated, mi-crotidal coastline of South Africa and provides suitable methods of prediction. Several years of berm survey and estuary water level data were analysed for the selected estuaries, resulting in a relatively large record of historical berm crest elevations compared to previous regional datasets. The new dataset was utilised to test and develop multiple methods for the prediction of berm height and consequently flood levels within TOCEs. Long-term wave runup elevations (R_(2%)) were simulated at the estuary berms using existing runup parameterisations to establish the exceedance probability threshold of R_(2%) associated with the maximum berm height (B_(MAX))- It was found that the 5% exceedance probability of runup provided consistent predictions of _(MAX) at the selected TOCEs with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.28 m. A Berm Height Criteria was developed to predict B_(MAX) based on the wave height, beach face slope, sediment grain size and tidal range at the estuary. The criteria-based approach ensures ease of use and is intended as a first estimate of Bmax (with MAE of 0.23 m). Lastly, a stepwise berm growth model was tested according to its potential to track short-term berm growth during inlet closure to breach cycles. The model provides a simplified approach to predict berm accretion based on the over-wash potential depth, which is defined as the elevation difference between R_(2%) and the berm height. The use of a site-specific scaling parameter for berm accretion provided predictions of the berm height at breach with MAEs varying between 0.03 m and 0.17 m among estuaries for the short-term scenarios tested. The hydrodynamic and morphological variability displayed by the selected South Africa TOCEs increased the robustness of the results, potentially making the findings relevant to TOCEs in other parts of the world.
机译：本研究调查了20次临时开放/封闭的河口（TOCES）的南非的临时开放式/封闭的河口（TOCES）的百彩嵴高度，并提供合适的预测方法。对于选定的河口，分析了几年的BERM调查和河口水位数据，导致与以前的区域数据集相比，历史百氏峰值高度的相对较大的记录。新数据集用于测试和开发多种方法，以预测BERM高度，从而在开销中的洪水水平。使用现有的运行参数在河口BERMS上模拟长期波浪升高（R_（2％）），以建立与最大BERM高度相关的R_（2％）的超标概率阈值（b_（max）） - 它是发现，运行的5％超标概率提供了所选传感的_（max）的一致预测，其具有0.28米的平均绝对误差（MAE）。开发了一种基于波浪高度，海滩面坡，沉积物粒度和河口的潮汐范围来预测B_（MAX）来预测B_（MAX）。基于标准的方法可确保易用性，旨在作为BMAX的第一估计（具有0.23米的MAE）。最后，根据其可能在入口闭合到违规循环期间跟踪短期海绵生长的潜力进行测试。该模型提供了一种简化的方法来基于过度清洗电位深度来预测烧伤性的方法，其被定义为R_（2％）和电链高度之间的高度差异。使用用于PERM的特异性缩放参数用于PERM ancetion的预测，在河口的突发中，在河口中的短期场景中的0.03米和0.17米之间的裂缝的预测。所选南非展示的流体动力学和形态变异性增加了结果的稳健性，可能使与世界其他地区有关的调查结果。

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  • 来源
    《Oceanographic Literature Review》 |2020年第10期|2150-2150|共1页
  • 作者

    Z. Booysen; A.K. Theron;

  • 作者单位

    Ports & Maritime Department Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. PO Box 360 Dubai United Arab Emirates;

    Ports & Maritime Department Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. PO Box 360 Dubai United Arab Emirates;

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