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Insights into projected changes in marine heatwaves from a high-resolution ocean circulation model

机译：从高分辨率海洋循环模型中欣赏海洋热浪的预计变化

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摘要

Global climate models project the intensification of marine heatwaves in coming decades due to global warming. However, the spatial resolution of these models is inadequate to resolve mesoscale processes that dominate variability in boundary current regions where societal and economic impacts of marine heatwaves are substantial. Here we compare the historical and projected changes in marine heatwaves in a 0.1° ocean model with 23 coarser-resolution climate models. Western boundary currents are the regions where the models disagree the most with observations and among themselves in simulating marine heatwaves of the past and the future. The lack of eddy-driven variability in the coarse-resolution models results in less intense marine heatwaves over the historical period and greater intensification in the coming decades. Although the projected changes agree well at the global scale, the greater spatial details around western boundary currents provided by the high-resolution model may be valuable for effective adaptation planning.
机译：由于全球变暖，全球气候模型将在未来几十年内进行海洋热浪的强化。然而，这些模型的空间分辨率不充分，以解决Mesoscale流程，这些过程在边界当前地区主导的变异性，其中海洋热浪的社会和经济影响很大。在这里，我们将海洋热浪中的历史和预测变化与23个较粗分辨率的气候模型进行比较0.1°海洋模型中的历史和预计的变化。西部界线是模型不同意的地区，在模拟过去和未来的海洋热浪中的观察中最多。粗辨率模型中缺乏涡流可变性导致历史时期的较少强烈的海洋热浪以及未来几十年更大的强化。虽然预计的变更在全球范围内达成良好，但高分辨率模型提供的西部边界电流的更多空间细节可能对有效的适应计划有价值。

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  • 来源
    《Oceanographic Literature Review》 |2020年第10期|2084-2085|共2页
  • 作者

    H. Hayashida; R.J. Matear; P.G. Strutton; X. Zhang;

  • 作者单位

    Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia;

    Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia;

    Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia;

    Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia;

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