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Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene

机译：气候变异模式：通过全新世的基于代理重建的合成与综述

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Modes of climate variability affect global and regional climates on different spatio-temporal scales, and they have important impacts on human activities and ecosystems. As these modes are a useful tool for simplifying the understanding of the climate system, it is crucial that we gain improved knowledge of their long-term past evolution and interactions over time to contextu-alise their present and future behaviour. We review the literature focused on proxy-based reconstructions of modes of climate variability during the Holocene (i.e., the last 11.7 thousand years) with a special emphasis on i) proxy-based reconstruction methods; ii) available proxy-based reconstructions of the main modes of variability, i.e., El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole; iii) major interactions between these modes; and iv) external forcing mechanisms related to the evolution of these modes. This review shows that modes of variability can be reconstructed using proxy-based records from a wide range of natural archives, but these reconstructions are scarce beyond the last millennium, partly due to the lack of robust chronologies with reduced dating uncertainties, technical issues related to proxy calibration, and difficulty elucidating their stationary impact (or not) on regional climates over time. While for each mode the available reconstructions tend to agree at mutidecadal timescales, they show notable disagreement on shorter timescales beyond the instrumental period. The reviewed evidence suggests that the intrinsic variability of modes can be modulated by external forcing, such as orbital, solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic forcing. The review also highlights some modes experience higher variability over the instrumental period, which is partly ascribed to anthropogenic forcing. These features stress the paramount importance of further studying their past variations using long climate-proxy records for the progress of climate science.
机译：气候变化模式影响不同的时空秤的全球和区域气候，它们对人类活动和生态系统具有重要影响。由于这些模式是一种有用的工具，用于简化气候系统的理解，这至关重要，我们在长期过去演化和相互作用的情况下提高了对环境和未来行为的时间。我们审查了专注于全新世（即，最后11.7千年）在全新世（即，最后11.7千年）期间基于代理基于气候变异性的重建的文献。基于I）代理的重建方法; ii）可用的基于代理的变异模式的重建，即El Nino Southern振荡，太平洋二等变异性，大西洋多型变异性，北大西洋振荡，南方环形模式和印度洋偶极子; iii）这些模式之间的主要相互作用;和IV）与这些模式的演变有关的外部强制机制。此述评显示，可以使用基于代理的记录从各种自然档案重建的可变性模式，但这些重建超出了最后一个千年，部分原因是由于缺乏约会不确定性，与之相关的技术问题缺乏强大的年表代理校准，随着时间的推移，难以在区域气候上阐明其固定的影响（或不）。虽然对于每种模式，可用的重建倾向于以默状划分的时间尺度同意，但它们在乐器期外的较短时间表上表现出显着的分歧。审查的证据表明，模式的内在变异性可以通过外部迫使，例如轨道，太阳能，火山和人为强制调节。审查还突出了一些模式在乐器期间经验更高的变化，部分归因于人为强迫。这些特征强调了使用漫长气候代理记录进一步研究其过去变异的最重要的重要性，以实现气候科学的进步。

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