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Tides and sea level

机译：潮汐和海平面

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Recent assessments from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) imply that global mean sea level is unlikely to rise more than about 1.1m within this century but will increase further beyond 2100. Even within the most intensive future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission scenarios, higher levels are assessed to be unlikely. However, some studies conclude that considerably greater sea level rise could be realized, and a number of experts assign a substantially higher likelihood of such a future. To understand this discrepancy, it would be useful to have scenario-independent metrics that can be compared between different approaches. The concept of a transient climate sensitivity has proven to be useful to compare the global mean temperature response of climate models to specific radiative forcing scenarios. Here, we introduce a similar metric for sea level response. By analyzing the mean rate of change in sea level (not sea level itself), we identify a nearly linear relationship with global mean surface temperature (and therefore accumulated carbon dioxide emissions) both in model projections and in observations on a century scale. This motivates us to define the "transient sea level sensitivity"as the increase in the sea level rate associated with a given warming in units of meters per century per kelvin. We find that future projections estimated on climate model responses fall below extrapolation based on recent observational records. This comparison suggests that the likely upper level of sea level projections in recent IPCC reports would be too low.
机译：近期政府间气候变化小组（IPCC）的评估意味着全球平均海平面不太可能在本世纪中超过约1.1米，但甚至在最具未来的未来人为温室气体排放场景，甚至更高评估水平不太可能。然而，一些研究得出结论，可以实现大幅度的海平面上升，并且一些专家分配了这种未来的大幅度可能性。要了解这种差异，具有与不同方法之间可以比较的场景独立的指标将是有用的。瞬态气候敏感性的概念已被证明是有用的，可以对旨在对特定的辐射强制情景进行比较气候模型的全球平均温度响应。在这里，我们介绍了类似的海平面响应度量。通过分析海平面（不是海平面本身）的平均变化率，我们在模型预测和在一个世纪范围内的观察中识别与全球平均表面温度（以及累积的二氧化碳排放）的几乎线性关系。这使我们能够定义“瞬态海平面敏感度”，因为海平面率的增加与每世纪每年米/克尔文的单位有关的海平率。我们发现，基于最近的观察记录，在气候模型反应上估计的未来预测降低了外推。这种比较表明，最近IPCC报告中的海平面预测的可能上层将太低。

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    《Oceanographic Literature Review》 |2021年第3期|484-484|共1页
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