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The nino-3.4 prediction skill of empirically adjusted wind power

机译：经验调整风电的Nino-3.4预测技巧

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Wind power, defined as the energy received by the ocean from wind, has been identified as a potentially viable precursor of ENSO. The correlation between tropical Pacific wind power anomalies and eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies can be enhanced over a range of lead times by applying an empirical adjusted framework that accounts for both the underlying climatological state upon which a wind power perturbation acts and the directionality of wind anomalies. Linear regression is used to assess the seasonal prediction skill of adjusted wind power in comparison to unadjusted, as well as the conventional ENSO predictors wind stress and warm water volume. The forecast skill of each regression model is evaluated in a 1800-yr preindus-trial climate simulation (CESM-LENS), as well as 23 years of observations. The simulation results show that each predictor's effectiveness varies considerably with the sample record, providing a measure of the uncertainty involved in evaluating prediction skill based on the short observational record. The influence of cli-matological biases is however a demonstrable concern for results from the simulated climate system. Despite the short record, the observational analysis indicates that adjusted wind power skill is comparable to the conventional dynamical predictors and notably is significantly more predictable than unadjusted wind power when initialized in the summer. Moreover, the adjusted framework results in a reduction of error when evaluating wind power associated with wind bursts, reinforcing previous findings that the adjusted framework is particularly useful for capturing the ENSO response to westerly wind bursts.
机译：被定义为海洋从风接收的能量的风力，已被鉴定为enso的潜在活性前体。通过应用经验调整后的框架，热带太平洋风力发电异常和东部赤道太平洋海表面温度异常的相关性可以通过应用潜在的气候扰动作用和方向性的潜在的气候状态来提高一系列的交货时间。风异常。线性回归用于评估调整后风电的季节性预测技巧与未经调整的，以及传统的ENSO预测器风应力和温水体积。每次回归模型的预测技能在1800年的预先试验气候模拟（CESM镜头）以及23年的观察中评估。仿真结果表明，每个预测因子的有效性随着样本记录而变化，提供了一种基于短观察记录评估预测技能所涉及的不确定性的量度。然而，CLI-型偏差的影响对于模拟气候系统的结果是一种明显的问题。尽管记录短，但观察分析表明调整后的风力发电技能与传统的动态预测因子相当，并且在夏季初始化时，特别是在初始化时的未经调整风力显着更可预测。此外，调整后的框架在评估与风突发相关的风电时导致误差的降低，加强了调整后的框架对于捕获对西方风爆发的响应特别有用。

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    《Oceanographic Literature Review》 |2021年第5期|983-984|共2页
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