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What Is Happening to Arctic Sea Ice, and What Does It Mean for Us?

机译：北极海冰发生了什么，这对我们意味着什么？

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摘要

Sea ice has emerged as the canary in the coal mine of climate change. Its summer extent in the Arctic has decreased by about 50% over the past decade, and the Arctic Ocean has undergone a regime shift from a cover of thick multiyear ice to a largely seasonal and much thinner ice cover. The recent loss is unprecedented in the periods of satellite and historical records of sea ice, and it also appears to be unique in paleo reconstructions spanning more than a thousand years. A "perfect storm" of warmer atmospheric and oceanic forcing, together with a boost from natural variability of wind forcing in some years, drove the change. However, the reduction of ice coverage is not apparent in some sub-Arctic regions during the winter, nor has it occurred in the Antarctic region. Signals of a response to the loss of sea ice are emerging in the ocean and the atmosphere. Ocean heat storage during the ice-free season not only contributes to a later freeze-up than in the past, but it also reduces the thickness to which first-year ice can grow. The vulnerability of this thinner ice to rapid spring melt is a manifestation of the ice-albedo-temperature feedback that has long been postulated as a contributor to polar amplification of climate change. More notably for middle latitudes, the loss of sea ice appears to be triggering a reduction of the large-scale westerlies that characterize atmospheric circulation in middle and subpolar latitudes. This response is consistent with increased persistence of departures from normal temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather during autumn and winter in heavily populated areas of the Northern Hemisphere.
机译：海冰已经成为气候变化煤矿中的金丝雀。在过去的十年中，北极地区的夏季范围减少了约50％，北冰洋经历了从多年厚冰覆盖到季节性和薄得多的冰覆盖的转变。在卫星和海冰的历史记录期间，最近的损失是史无前例的，并且在跨越一千多年的古重建中也似乎是独一无二的。大气和海洋强迫变暖的“完美风暴”，加上几年来自然强迫的自然变化推动了这一变化。但是，在冬季，在某些亚北极地区，冰盖的减少并不明显，在南极地区也没有发生。海洋和大气层中正在出现对海冰损失作出反应的信号。在无冰季节，海洋蓄热不仅导致比过去更晚的冻结，而且还减少了第一年冰可以生长的厚度。这种稀薄的冰对春季快速融化的脆弱性是冰-反照率-温度反馈的一种表现，长期以来人们一直认为，冰-反照率-温度反馈是导致气候变化极地放大的原因。特别是对于中纬度地区，海冰的流失似乎正在触发以中纬度和亚极纬度地区的大气环流为特征的大规模西风的减少。这种反应与北半球人口稠密地区在秋季和冬季偏离常温，降水和极端天气的持续加剧相一致。

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  • 来源
    《Oceanography》 |2013年第2期|171-181|共11页
  • 作者

    JOHN E. WALSH;

  • 作者单位

    International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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