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DEVELOPMENT of a HINDCAST/FORECAST MODEL FOR THE Philippine archipelago

机译:菲律宾群岛的预测/预报模型的开发

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摘要

This article discusses the challenges of developing a regional ocean prediction model for the Philippine Archipelago, a complex area in terms of geometry, bathymetry-dominated dynamics and variability, and strong local and remote wind forcing, where there are limited temporal and spatial ocean measurements. We used the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for real-time forecasting during the Philippine Straits Dynamics Experiment (2007-2009) observational program. The article focuses on the prediction experiments before and during the exploratory cruise period, June 6-July 3, 2007. The gathered observations were not available in real time, so the 4-Dimensional Variational (4D-Var) data assimilation experiments were carried out in hindcast mode. The best estimate of ocean state (nowcast) is determined by combining satellite-derived products for sea surface temperature and height, and subsurface temperature and salinity measurements from several hydrographic assets over a sequential five-day data assimilation window. The largest source of forecast uncertainty is from the prescribed lateral boundary conditions in the nearby Pacific Ocean, especially excessive salt flux. This result suggests that remote forcing and inflows from the Pacific are crucial for predicting ocean circulation in the Philippine Archipelago region. The lateral boundary conditions are derived from 1/12° global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) daily snapshots. The incremental, strong-constraint 4D-Var data assimilation successfully decreased temperature and salinity errors of the real-time, nonassimilative control forecast by 38% and 49%, respectively.
机译:本文讨论了为菲律宾群岛开发区域海洋预测模型所面临的挑战,该区域在几何形状,以测深法为主的动力学和可变性以及强大的本地和偏远风强迫方面是一个复杂的区域,在这些区域中时空海洋测量值有限。在菲律宾海峡动力学实验(2007-2009)观测计划期间,我们使用区域海洋建模系统(ROMS)进行实时预报。本文重点讨论了探索性巡航期间(2007年6月6日至7月3日)之前和之中的预测实验。由于无法实时获取所收集的观测值,因此进行了4维变分(4D-Var)数据同化实验。在后播模式下。最好的海洋状态估计(即将预报)是通过将卫星衍生产品用于海面温度和高度,以及在连续五天的数据同化窗口中对来自多个水文资产的地下温度和盐度测量值进行组合来确定的。预测不确定性的最大来源是附近太平洋中规定的横向边界条件,尤其是盐分通量过大。这一结果表明,来自太平洋的遥远强迫和流入对于预测菲律宾群岛地区的海洋环流至关重要。横向边界条件是从1/12°全球混合坐标海洋模型(HYCOM)每日快照得出的。渐进式强约束4D-Var数据同化成功地将实时,非同化控制预报的温度和盐度误差分别降低了38%和49%。

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  • 来源
    《Oceanography》 |2011年第1期|p.58-70|共13页
  • 作者单位

    Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA;

    Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University,New Brunswick, NJ, USA;

    Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, N), USA;

    Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland,College Park, MD, USA;

    Department,University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA;

    Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO,USA;

    Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA;

    Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA;

    Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA;

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