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Present Conditions and Future Changes in a High-CO_2 World

机译：高CO_2世界的现状和未来变化

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摘要

The uptake of anthropogenic CO_2 by the global ocean induces fundamental changes in seawater chemistry that could have dramatic impacts on biological ecosystems in the upper ocean. Estimates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business-as-usual emission scenarios suggest that atmospheric CO_2 levels could approach 800 ppm near the end of the century. Corresponding biogeochemical models for the ocean indicate that surface water pH will drop from a pre-industrial value of about 8.2 to about 7.8 in the IPCC A2 scenario by the end of this century, increasing the ocean's acidity by about 150% relative to the beginning of the industrial era. In contemporary ocean water, elevated CO_2 will also cause substantial reductions in surface water carbonate ion concentrations, in terms of either absolute changes or fractional changes relative to pre-industrial levels. For most open-ocean surface waters, aragonite undersaturation occurs when carbonate ion concentrations drop below approximately 66 μmol kg~(-1). The model projections indicate that aragonite undersaturation will start to occur by about 2020 in the Arctic Ocean and 2050 in the Southern Ocean. By 2050, all of the Arctic will be undersaturated with respect to aragonite, and by 2095, all of the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Pacific will be undersaturated. For calcite, undersaturation occurs when carbonate ion concentration drops below 42 μmol kg~(-1). By 2095, most of the Arctic and some parts of the Bering and Chukchi seas will be undersaturated with respect to calcite. However, in most of the other ocean basins, the surface waters will still be saturated with respect to calcite, but at a level greatly reduced from the present.
机译：全球海洋对人为CO_2的吸收引起了海水化学的根本变化，可能对上层海洋的生物生态系统产生巨大影响。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）照常排放情景进行的估算表明，到本世纪末，大气中的CO_2水平可能接近800 ppm。相应的海洋生物地球化学模型表明，到本世纪末，IPCC A2情景中的地表水pH值将从工业化前的约8.2降低到约7.8，相对于2000年初，海洋的酸度增加了约150％。工业时代。在当代海水中，相对于工业化前的水平而言，绝对变化或分数变化都可能导致CO_2浓度升高，导致地表水碳酸盐离子浓度大幅降低。对于大多数开阔海洋地表水，当碳酸根离子浓度降至约66μmolkg〜（-1）以下时，文石就会发生欠饱和。模型预测表明，文石欠饱和将在北冰洋到2020年左右开始，在南洋到2050年开始发生。到2050年，所有文石的北极地区将饱和，而到2095年，整个南大洋和部分北太平洋地区将饱和。对于方解石，当碳酸根离子浓度降至42μmolkg〜（-1）以下时，发生不饱和。到2095年，大多数方解石以及白令海和楚科奇海的部分地区将因方解石而饱和。但是，在大多数其他海盆中，方解石的地表水仍会饱和，但其水平比目前大大降低。

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  • 来源
    《Oceanography》 |2009年第4期|36-47|共12页
  • 作者

    RICHARD A. FEELY; SCOTT C. DONEY; SARAH R. COOLEY;

  • 作者单位

    Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, USA;

    Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA;

    Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA;

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