MARINE HOST-PATHOGEN DYNAMICS: Influences of Global Climate Change

Cohen Rebecca E.; James Chase C.; Lee Allison; Martinelli Maurizio M.; Muraoka Wendy T.; Ortega Mikayla; Sadowski Rachel; Starkey Lark; Szesciorka Angela R.; Timko Sonya E.; Weiss Elliot L.; Franks Peter J. S.

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MARINE HOST-PATHOGEN DYNAMICS: Influences of Global Climate Change

机译：海洋寄主病原动力学：全球气候变化的影响

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Host-pathogen relationships are an important subset of interspecics interactions that are capable of influencing population dynamics, community structure, and biogeochcmical cycles. Relationships between hosts and pathogens are expected to shift in response to global climate change. Atmospheric and oceanic warming is already affecting many ecosystems, perhaps most markedly those in marine environments. Case studies illustrate some impacts ocean warming is having on marine host-pathogen dynamics, including: (1) increased host stress, (2) increased pathogen virulence, (3) pathogen range expansion, and (4) host range changes. Output from global climate models was used to calculate the number of additional months each year that various coastal regions around the globe may reach temperatures above a given threshold 50 and 100 years from now; for the Arctic region, we characterize changes in sea ice cover. Complex interactions between multiple ocean conditions that could also affect host-pathogen relationships, such as rising sea surface temperature, anoxia, ocean acidification, and stratification, should also be investigated.

机译：宿主-病原体之间的关系是物种间相互作用的重要子集，能够影响种群动态，群落结构和生物地理周期。寄主和病原体之间的关系有望随着全球气候变化而发生变化。大气和海洋变暖已经影响到许多生态系统，也许最明显的是海洋环境中的生态系统。案例研究说明了海洋变暖对海洋寄主-病原体动力学的一些影响，包括：（1）寄主压力增加，（2）病原体毒力增加，（3）病原体范围扩大，以及（4）寄主范围变化。全球气候模型的输出用于计算全球各个沿海地区每年从现在起50到100年的温度可能超过给定阈值的额外月份数；对于北极地区，我们描述了海冰覆盖变化的特征。还应研究多种海洋条件之间的复杂相互作用，这些相互作用也可能影响宿主与病原体的关系，例如海面温度升高，缺氧，海洋酸化和分层。

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《Oceanography》 |2018年第2期|182-193|共12页
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Cohen Rebecca E.; James Chase C.; Lee Allison; Martinelli Maurizio M.; Muraoka Wendy T.; Ortega Mikayla; Sadowski Rachel; Starkey Lark; Szesciorka Angela R.; Timko Sonya E.; Weiss Elliot L.; Franks Peter J. S.;
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Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, San Diego, CA 92103 USA;

Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, Biol Oceanog Class SIO280, San Diego, CA 92103 USA;

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7. The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content. [O] . McGregor, Helen V., Evans, Michael N., Goosse, Hugues, 2015

机译：海洋调节了全球气候对自然和人为强迫的响应。然而，在过去的2,000年中（这是了解当前和未来气候对这些强迫的响应的关键间隔），全球海表温度变化及其潜在的驱动机制受到的约束很有限。在这里，我们提出了一个共同的时期（ce）的全球海面温度的全球综合，该综合来自57个符合严格质量控制标准的海洋重建项目。我们观察到从1到1800 ce的冷却趋势，对于显式测试重建中潜在的偏倚而言，该趋势很稳健。在801至1800 ce之间，表面降温趋势在质量上与地面温度重建的独立合成以及从使用过去外部辐射强迫的最佳估计的气候模型模拟集合推导出的海面温度合成在质量上是一致的。使用单一和累积强迫的气候模拟表明，从801到1800 ce的海洋表面冷却趋势主要不是对轨道强迫的反应，而是爆炸性火山爆发的频繁发生。我们的结果表明，火山喷发的反复簇可引起净的负辐射强迫，这会导致混合层海洋热量降低而导致百年和全球规模的降温趋势。

MARINE HOST-PATHOGEN DYNAMICS: Influences of Global Climate Change

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