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Ocean Warming: FROM THE SURFACE TO THE DEEP IN OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS

机译：海洋变暖：从表面到深层的观测和模型

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摘要

The ocean is the primary heat sink of the global climate system. Since 1971, it has been responsible for storing more than 90% of the excess heat added to the Earth system by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. Adding this heat to the ocean contributes substantially to sea level rise and affects vital marine ecosystems. Considering the global ocean's large role in ongoing climate variability and change, it is a good place to focus in order to understand what observed changes have occurred to date and, by using models, what future changes might arise under continued anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. While sparse measurement coverage leads to enhanced uncertainties with long-term historical estimates of change, modern measurements are beginning to provide the clearest picture yet of ongoing global ocean change. Observations show that the ocean is warming from the near-surface through to the abyss, a conclusion that is strengthened with each new analysis. In this assessment, we revisit observation- and model-based estimates of ocean warming from the industrial era to the present and show a consistent, full-depth pattern of change over the observed record that is likely to continue at an ever-increasing pace if effective actions to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions are not taken.
机译：海洋是全球气候系统的主要散热器。自1971年以来，它一直负责储存人为温室气体排放给地球系统增加的90％以上的多余热量。向海洋增加热量会大大促进海平面上升，并影响重要的海洋生态系统。考虑到全球海洋在持续的气候变化和变化中所起的重要作用，这里是一个重点关注的地方，以便了解迄今为止观测到的变化以及通过使用模型，在持续的人为强迫气候系统作用下未来可能发生的变化。尽管稀疏的测量范围导致对变化的长期历史估计会增加不确定性，但现代测量方法开始提供迄今为止全球海洋变化的最清晰画面。观测表明，海洋正在从近地表到深渊变暖，这一结论随着每次新的分析而得到加强。在此评估中，我们将回顾基于观测和模型的从工业时代到现在的海洋变暖估计，并显示出观测到的记录上一致，全面的变化模式，如果这种变化可能会以不断增加的速度持续下去没有采取有效措施减少温室气体排放。

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  • 来源
    《Oceanography》 |2018年第2期|41-51|共11页
  • 作者

    Durack Paul J.; Gleckler Peter J.; Purkey Sarah G.; Johnson Gregory C.; Lyman John M.; Boyer Tim P.;

  • 作者单位

    Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Program Climate Model Diag & Intercomparison, Livermore, CA 94550 USA;

    Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, San Diego, CA 92103 USA;

    NOAA, Pacific Marine Environm Lab, 7600 Sand Point Way Ne, Seattle, WA 98115 USA;

    NOAA, NCEI, Ocean Climate Lab Team, Silver Spring, MD USA;

    Univ Hawaii, Joint Inst Marine & Atmospher Res, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA;

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