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THE CONTRIBUTION OF HOUSING MARKETS TO CYCLICAL RESILIENCE

机译：住房市场对循环弹性的贡献

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This paper examines the linkages between housing markets and the business cycle in OECD countries, focusing on how differences in the degree of resilience to economic shocks can be affected by the structural characteristics of housing and mortgage markets. The paper focuses specifically on: the transmission channel from housing wealth to consumption and on the factors behind house price variability, which help to determine whether the housing sector plays a stabilising role or not. Estimates of the marginal propensity to consume out of housing wealth are presented for ten OECD countries, where it is found that the strongest impact on consumption is in countries that have large, efficient and responsive mortgage markets. Particularly important in this regard is the degree of mortgage market "completeness" - i.e. the extent to which the market is able to offer a variety of products and to serve a broad range of potential borrowers - in particular, the extent to which they provide opportunities for housing equity withdrawal. With regard to house price variability, the significant differences found among OECD countries appear to be connected both to macroeconomic factors (such as inflation variability) and to structural ones. House prices seem to be subject to larger oscillations in countries where housing supply is relatively inelastic (due, for example, to unnecessarily restrictive zoning regulations) and where a favourable tax treatment of mortgage interest encourages the leveraging of housing equity. A tentative conclusion is that structural policy settings that are desirable for the sake of efficient resource allocation also tend to be conducive to greater macroeconomic resilience to shocks.
机译：本文研究了经合组织国家的住房市场与商业周期之间的联系，重点研究了住房和抵押市场的结构特征如何影响经济冲击的抵御能力的差异。该论文特别关注：从住房财富到消费的传递渠道，以及房价可变性背后的因素，这些因素有助于确定住房部门是否发挥稳定作用。对十个经合组织国家的住房财富的边际消费倾向进行了估算，发现对住房的影响最大的国家是拥有庞大，高效和反应迅速的抵押贷款市场的国家。在这方面，尤为重要的是抵押市场的“完整性”程度，即市场能够提供各种产品并为广泛的潜在借款人提供服务的程度，尤其是它们提供机会的程度。用于房屋净值提取。关于房价的可变性，经合组织国家之间发现的重大差异似乎与宏观经济因素（如通货膨胀可变性）和结构性因素有关。在住房供应相对缺乏弹性的国家（例如，由于不必要的限制性分区规定），并且抵押贷款利息的税收优惠政策鼓励了利用住房净值的国家，房价似乎受到更大的波动。初步结论是，为有效分配资源而需要的结构性政策设置也往往有助于提高宏观经济对冲击的适应力。

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