Global seaborne crude trade is currently expected to expand by a steady 1.8% in 2018 to reach 41.1m bpd. This represents a slowdown in the pace of growth relative to 2017, with imports into several major regions (namely the US and Europe) expected to decline or remain steady this year. US crude imports are projected to fall 8% in the full year amidst rapidly growing US output, whilst European crude imports are expected to hold relatively steady in 2018 after expanding by 5% last year. However, some support to growth in global crude trade is anticipated from rising Asian imports, which are expected to grow by 4% this year. A notable proportion of the projected increase in Asian imports is expected to be accounted for growth in imports into China. Although the pace of growth in Chinese seaborne crude imports is expected to ease slightly relative to 2017, partially due to increased crude flows via pipeline from Russia, the continued filling of China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve combined with rising demand from the country's refining sector is still expected to support firm growth in imports of 6% this year. If brought to fruition, recent threats by China to impose import tariffs on imports of US crude could impact trade flows between the two nations, but significant uncertainty remains surrounding the wider ramifications.
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