On the exporter side, growth in global crude trade this year is expected to be limited by a 12% fall in Latin American exports, largely driven by falling shipments from Venezuela, projected to almost halve in 2018 as the economic crisis in the country continues. Against the backdrop of rapidly declining domestic output, Venezuelan exports are anticipated to be further limited by the worsening logistical issues that have arisen over recent months from the seizure of Caribbean facilities used by PDVSA, with severe bottlenecks reported at Venezuelan ports. Elsewhere, Iranian exports are expected to fall 3% in 2018, following the decision by the US to re-impose secondary economic sanctions. However, although this factor is currently expected to limit growth in global crude trade this year, there is the potential that the anticipated fall in Iranian supply could prompt countries party to the OPEC-led production cut deal to begin incrementally increasing output. However, significant uncertainty remains, with further clarity expected after the OPEC meeting on June 22nd-23rd. Meanwhile, US crude exports are expected to almost double in 2018 amidst record domestic production levels, although China's recent threats to impose import duties on US crude could impact US exports to the country in the remainder of the year.
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