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Seaborne Crude Exports

机译:海上原油出口

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On the exporter side, growth in global crude trade this year is expected to be limited by a 12% fall in Latin American exports, largely driven by falling shipments from Venezuela, projected to almost halve in 2018 as the economic crisis in the country continues. Against the backdrop of rapidly declining domestic output, Venezuelan exports are anticipated to be further limited by the worsening logistical issues that have arisen over recent months from the seizure of Caribbean facilities used by PDVSA, with severe bottlenecks reported at Venezuelan ports. Elsewhere, Iranian exports are expected to fall 3% in 2018, following the decision by the US to re-impose secondary economic sanctions. However, although this factor is currently expected to limit growth in global crude trade this year, there is the potential that the anticipated fall in Iranian supply could prompt countries party to the OPEC-led production cut deal to begin incrementally increasing output. However, significant uncertainty remains, with further clarity expected after the OPEC meeting on June 22nd-23rd. Meanwhile, US crude exports are expected to almost double in 2018 amidst record domestic production levels, although China's recent threats to impose import duties on US crude could impact US exports to the country in the remainder of the year.
机译:在出口商方面,预计今年全球原油贸易的增长将受到拉丁美洲出口下降12%的限制,这主要是由于委内瑞拉的出货量下降,随着该国经济危机的继续,预计2018年将下降近一半。在国内产量迅速下降的背景下,委内瑞拉的出口预计将受到最近几个月因PDVSA占用的加勒比海设施被没收而引起的后勤问题恶化而受到进一步限制的报道,委内瑞拉港口据报出现严重瓶颈。在其他地方,在美国决定重新实施二级经济制裁之后,预计伊朗的出口在2018年将下降3%。但是,尽管目前预计这一因素将限制今年全球原油贸易的增长,但伊朗供应的预期下降可能会促使参加欧佩克牵头的减产协议的国家开始逐步增加产量。但是,仍然存在着巨大的不确定性,预计在6月22日至23日的欧佩克会议后将进一步澄清。同时,尽管中国近期威胁要对美国原油征收进口关税,但在今年剩余时间内,尽管中国近期威胁要对美国原油征收进口关税,但预计美国原油出口将在2018年几乎翻番。

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    《Oil & Tanker Trades Outlook》 |2018年第6期|19-19|共1页
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