Total African crude exports declined 5% y-o-y in 2014 to stand at 6.2m bpd. Although initial expectations for West African crude exports were positive, a series of technical issues in Angola, coupled with infrastructure sabotage in Nigeria, hampered growth. Meanwhile, Libyan crude exports declined sharply in 2014, as a result of widespread conflict and port closures. However, in 2015, total African crude exports are expected to increase 3% y-o-y to 6.4m bpd. This is partially supported by a projected rise of 3% y-o-y in Angolan crude exports to 1.8m bpd, as a result of increased crude production. Meanwhile, it is expected that Libyan output will recover somewhat on the back of some alleviation to the current difficulties. Elsewhere, total Middle Eastern exports are expected to rise 2% y-o-y to 18.3m bpd, comparable to 2011 levels. Several members of OPEC, including Saudi Arabia, have indicated that they wish to pursue a policy of retaining market share in the face of low oil prices, rather than cutting back production to support higher prices. Consequently, it is expected that Saudi Arabia will increase exports modestly, to 7.5m bpd. Meanwhile, in light of an improved outlook for Iranian sanctions, crude exports from the Islamic Republic are expected to increase 7% y-o-y to 1.2m bpd.
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