Seaborne crude imports are estimated to have fallen by 1.3% y-o-y to stand at 36.3m bpd in 2014, the lowest level since 2009. This decline is largely as a result of a sharp decrease in US crude imports to 4.5m bpd, whilst EU crude imports fell 4% y-o-y to 8.4m bpd. In 2015, seaborne crude imports are projected to rise 1.4% y-o-y to 36.8m bpd. It is expected that a decreased price of oil will lend some support to OECD importers as well as prompt increased stockpiling across major crude importers. However, total European crude imports are not expected to rise in 2015, although the rate of decline, 1% y-o-y, represents an upward revision from previous estimates. In North America, US crude imports are expected to fall 4% y-o-y to 4.4m bpd. Although US crude production is not expected to increase as rapidly as in 2014, continued production growth is likely to further edge out imports. In contrast, Chinese crude imports are expected to rise 7% y-o-y in 2015 to stand at 6.1m bpd. This is largely as a result of further growth in the Chinese refinery sector. However, Chinese crude imports are also expected to be boosted somewhat by crude stockpiling, supported by a lower oil price. The projected increase in Chinese crude imports is expected to be a key driver of total Asian crude imports rising 3% y-o-y to 19.7m bpd.
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