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The impact of e-car deployment on global crude oil demand

机译：电动汽车的部署对全球原油需求的影响

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摘要

This paper investigates the impact of growing e-car deployment on global crude oil demand, by determining the impact factors of total vehicles-in-use. It further sets out the impact on global fuel consumption and global crude oil demand. Both effects are compared with a benchmark scenario excluding e-car deployment. A 25-year simulation of the three different demand functions is performed and finds significant impact on fuel demand, but less significant impact on crude oil demand, since gasoline is just a partial fraction of crude oil and most of global crude oil demand depends on global economic development. The conclusion of this paper is that we find fuel demand to peak earliest in 2021, followed by a subsequent decline to today's levels, assuming that e-car market share development follows a Rayleigh distribution. Based on a car manufacturer survey by KPMG, which indicates a 10 per cent e-car market share in 10 years, the e-car sales function is adapted to this estimation. At the same time, global crude oil demand is found to peak in 2025 in case of 10 per cent e-car market share, in 2026 in the case of 8 per cent e-car market share and in 2030 in case of a 6 per cent e-car market share in 10 years. Until 2040, the increase in crude oil demand is found to be 25 per cent slower in the 10 per cent market share case, 20 per cent slower in the 8 per cent market share case and 15 per cent slower in the 6 per cent market share case than compared with global crude oil demand without any e-cars deployed.
机译：本文通过确定电动汽车总使用量的影响因素，研究了电动汽车的部署对全球原油需求的影响。它进一步阐述了对全球燃料消耗和全球原油需求的影响。将这两种影响与基准情景（不包括电动汽车部署）进行比较。对这三种不同需求函数进行了为期25年的模拟，发现对燃料需求有重大影响，但对原油需求的影响较小，因为汽油只是原油的一部分，全球大部分原油需求取决于全球经济发展。本文的结论是，假设电动汽车市场份额的发展遵循瑞利分布，我们发现燃料需求最早会在2021年达到顶峰，随后又下降到今天的水平。根据毕马威（KPMG）的汽车制造商调查，该调查表明10年内电动汽车的市场份额为10％，电动汽车的销售功能适用于此估算。同时，发现全球原油需求在2025年达到10％的电动汽车市场高峰，在2026年达到8％的电动汽车市场份额，到2030年达到6％的峰值。 10年内占电动汽车市场份额的百分比。直到2040年，发现原油需求的增长在10％的市场份额情况下减慢25％，在8％的市场份额情况下减慢20％，在6％​​的市场份额情况下减慢15％与未部署任何电动汽车的全球原油需求相比。

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  • 来源
    《OPEC energy review》 |2015年第4期|402-417|共16页
  • 作者

    Stephan Unger;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Finance, University of Vienna, Oskar-Morgensternplatz 1, 1090 Vienna, Austria;

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