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Oil revenue, institutions and macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria

机译：尼日利亚的石油收入，机构和宏观经济指标

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摘要

The influx of massive revenues during periods of abnormally high oil prices creates enormous challenges for policy-makers in oil-producing countries. In Nigeria, the prudent utilisation of oil revenues has remained elusive for policy-makers over time. While the country has earned sizeable oil revenues from its natural endowment, poverty and income inequality have been persistent. This study tests the sensitivity of several important macroeconomic indicators to oil revenue shocks. We additionally test for the effect of'institutional quality', in recognition of the important role played by the domestic institutional context in shaping the policy responses adopted by successive Nigerian governments to oil windfalls over time. The sensitivity analysis supports the general view that fluctuations in oil revenues have resulted in inflation, lower output growth and real exchange rate appreciation in Nigeria. More importantly, the aforementioned institutional variable is found to be very significant. This finding is consistent with the general assessment of fiscal performance in Nigeria during oil windfalls as being driven by domestic institutional dynamics. Ostentatious public consumption widened fiscal deficits, and government spending has been highly pro-cyclical during windfall episodes. In conclusion, the study offers appropriate policy recommendations, which could be adopted to enhance the management of future oil windfalls in Nigeria.
机译：在异常高的油价时期大量收入的涌入给产油国的决策者带来了巨大的挑战。在尼日利亚，随着时间的流逝，对决策者的审慎利用石油收入仍然难以捉摸。尽管该国的自然natural赋获得了可观的石油收入，但贫困和收入不平等现象仍然持续存在。这项研究测试了几个重要的宏观经济指标对石油收入冲击的敏感性。我们还对“制度质量”的影响进行了测试，以认识到国内制度环境在塑造尼日利亚历届政府对石油横财的政策反应中所起的重要作用。敏感性分析支持普遍的观点，即石油收入的波动导致尼日利亚的通货膨胀，较低的产出增长和实际汇率升值。更重要的是，上述机构变量非常重要。这一发现与尼日利亚受国内机构动态驱动的石油意外收获期间对财政绩效的总体评估是一致的。疯狂的公共消费扩大了财政赤字，在意外事件期间，政府支出一直高度顺周期。总之，该研究提供了适当的政策建议，可以采用这些建议来加强对尼日利亚未来石油意外收获的管理。

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  • 来源
    《OPEC energy review》 |2013年第1期|30-52|共23页
  • 作者

    Vanessa Ushie; Oluwatosin Adeniyi; Sabastine Akongwale;

  • 作者单位

    The North-South Institute, 55 Murray Street, Suite 500, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1N 5M3;

    Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa, Maitama, Abuja, Nigeria;

    Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa, Maitama, Abuja, Nigeria;

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