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Network Effects of Countries' Exchange Rate Regime Choices: A Spatial Analysis

机译:国家汇率制度选择的网络效应:空间分析

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This paper studies two issues of countries’ exchange rate regime (ERR) choices: why countries peg and, if they peg, how they choose their anchor currency. Previous studies focus on the use of country-specific factors to explain countries’ exchange rate regime choices. However, though some papers found strong correlation between idiosyncratic factors and ERR choices, these factors cannot fully explain the contemporary movement of the choices. It is possible that large swings in regime choices are caused by network effects: a few countries change their ERR and other countries follow. If this snowball effect is true for countries’ decisions, we should be able to observe spatial autocorrelations among countries’ ERR choices. Using spatial analysis, we found that countries are likely to follow the ERRs of other countries, and countries’ ERRs are jointly determined by network effects and country-specific factors. The findings indicate that countries may achieve higher welfare by jointly choosing their ERRs with their major partners through cooperation and negotiation.
机译:本文研究了有关国家汇率制度(ERR)选择的两个问题:国家为什么要钉住货币,如果要钉住货币,那么他们如何选择锚定货币。先前的研究着重于使用特定国家的因素来解释国家的汇率制度选择。但是,尽管一些论文发现特质因素与ERR选择之间存在很强的相关性,但这些因素无法完全解释选择的当代运动。政权选择的大幅波动可能是由网络效应引起的:一些国家改变了他们的ERR,而其他国家则紧随其后。如果这种滚雪球效应对于国家的决定是正确的,那么我们应该能够观察到各国ERR选择之间的空间自相关。通过空间分析,我们发现国家/地区可能会遵循其他国家/地区的ERR,而国家/地区的ERR是由网络效应和特定国家/地区因素共同决定的。研究结果表明,各国可以通过合作和谈判与主要合作伙伴共同选择其ERR,从而获得更高的福利。

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