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Bayesian mixture of AR models for time series clustering

机译:时间序列聚类的AR模型的贝叶斯混合

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摘要

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework for estimation of parameters of a mixture of autore-gressive models for time series clustering. The proposed approach is based on variational principles and provides a tractable approximation to the true posterior density that minimizes Kullback-Liebler (KL) divergence with respect to prior distribution. This method simultaneously addresses the model complexity and parameter estimation problems. The proposed approach is applied both on simulated and real-world time series datasets. It is found to be useful in exploring and finding the true number of underlying clusters, starting from an arbitrarily large number of clusters.
机译:在本文中,我们提出了一种贝叶斯框架,用于估计时间序列聚类的自回归模型的混合参数。所提出的方法基于变分原理,并且提供了对真实后验密度的易于处理的近似,从而相对于先前的分布最小化了Kullback-Liebler(KL)散度。该方法同时解决了模型复杂性和参数估计问题。所提出的方法可应用于模拟和实时时间序列数据集。从任意数量的群集开始,发现它对于探索和查找实际数量的基础群集很有用。

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