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Reaching for Frontiers: Registering Discontinuity in Energy Market Analysis

机译：开拓前沿：在能源市场分析中记录不连续性

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Natural gas forecasting, the art of foretelling energy events in the natural gas energy market, has over the past 20 years developed a sophisticated set of modes for registering forms of discontinuity. The field is composed primarily of university trained economists who collect, analyze, and distribute information of relevance to natural gas buyers and sellers, including information about weather, future prices of gas, other fuels, demand patterns, etc. These forecasters develop a sense for how the U.S. natural gas energy market operates by applying neoclassical economic styles of thought or price theory to the indigenous practice of the energy market. Price theory aims to explain the distribution of social product in terms of forces of supply and demand, founded on the substitutability of factors of production. In the context of the North American natural gas energy market, this substitutability results from (a) the existence of alternative methods of producing affordable energy sources (oil, coal) and (b) the choice made by consumers (industrial, residential, and commercial) between these different sources of energy, what is called fuel switching (e.g., natural gas to coal). All of this is to say that, in general, forecasters build up knowledge by keeping accurate records on quantities of energy generated and consumed. Beginning fall 2000 and for the following eight months, natural gas forecasters emerged as leaders in the North American natural gas industry in foretelling a wide range of political, economic, and social change. This historical moment, when forecasters became identified as providing a modernizing consciousness, was based on their ability to register a particular kind of event—they discovered a discontinuity in the way the natural gas industry would function as a market. When as it came to pass they failed to accurately describe the future, based not on these wider changes but on what they are paid to do, that is, analyze interactions between supply, de- mand, and price projections, their relationship to the industry as modernizers diminished. In this article, I describe this brief moment when the dream (utopia) of the natural gas forecaster reaches beyond the limit of economic interpretation.
机译：天然气预测是天然气能源市场中预测能源事件的艺术，在过去的20年中，已经开发出一套复杂的模式来记录不连续形式。该领域主要由受过大学训练的经济学家组成，他们收集，分析和分发与天然气买卖双方有关的信息，包括有关天气，天然气的未来价格，其他燃料，需求模式等的信息。通过将新古典经济学风格或价格理论应用于能源市场的本土实践，美国天然气能源市场的运作方式。价格理论的目的是根据生产要素的可替代性，根据供求力来解释社会产品的分配。在北美天然气能源市场的背景下，这种替代性是由于（a）生产负担得起的能源（石油，煤炭）的替代方法的存在，以及（b）消费者（工业，住宅和商业）的选择而产生的）在这些不同的能源之间，即所谓的燃料转换（例如，天然气到煤炭）。总而言之，这就是说，预报员通过准确记录所产生和消耗的能量数量来积累知识。从2000年秋季开始，在随后的八个月中，天然气预报员成为北美天然气行业的领导者，预示着广泛的政治，经济和社会变革。这个历史性的时刻，即预报员被确定为提供现代化意识，是基于他们记录特定事件的能力的—他们发现了天然气行业作为市场运作方式的不连续性。当它们过去时，他们不能准确地描述未来，不是基于这些更广泛的变化，而是基于他们要做的事情，即分析供给，需求和价格预测之间的相互作用，它们与行业的关系。随着现代化者的减少。在本文中，我描述了这一短暂时刻，即天然气预报员的梦想（乌托邦）超出了经济解释的范围。

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