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Climatic and hydrophysical conditions of the development of hypoxia in waters of the northwest shelf of the Black Sea

机译：黑海西北海域缺氧发展的气候和水文条件

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The data of meteorological and oceanographic observations on the northwest shelf of the Black Sea for 1973–2000 are used to compute the characteristics of the entire area in the presence of hypoxia of waters under the pycnocline in the summer–autumn period and the area of surface waters with a level of salinity lower than 17.5‰ in May. The time of onset of the spring warming of air (stable transition through a temperature of 5°) is determined. A statistically significant positive trend of the air temperature (0.8° per 100 yr) is revealed in Odessa. The process of warming was observed mainly for the winter (1.5° per 100 yr) and spring (0.8° per 100 yr) periods and became especially intense since the beginning of the 1990s. On the basis of the data of correlation analyses, we establish a statistically significant relationship between the large-scale atmospheric processes [the index of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the wind conditions], the area of surface waters whose salinity is lower than 17.5‰, and the total area with hypoxia in the summer–autumn periods. For positive mean values of the NAO index (in January–March), we most often observe early spring with elevated repetition of the south and west winds with subsequent development of hypoxia in large areas of the northwest shelf. We propose an empirical regression model for the prediction of the total area of summer–autumn hypoxia of waters with predictors: the onset of the spring warming of air and the area of propagation of waters whose salinity is lower than 17.5‰ in May. The maximum error of prediction of the area with hypoxia does not exceed 5.5 ⋅ 103 km2, i.e., less than 2% of the total area of the northwest shelf in the Black Sea (to the north of 45°N).
机译：1973-2000年黑海西北海架的气象和海洋观测数据用于计算夏秋季期间在比多可林以下水域缺氧的情况下整个区域的特征和地表面积5月份盐度低于17.5‰的水域。确定空气弹簧变暖的开始时间（温度稳定过渡到5°）。敖德萨（Odessa）发现气温有统计上的显着正趋势（每100年0.8°）。主要在冬季（每100年1.5°）和春季（每100年0.8°）观察到变暖过程，自1990年代初以来变暖特别强烈。根据相关分析的数据，我们建立了大型大气过程[北大西洋涛动指数（NAO）与风况]，盐度低于17.5的地表水面积之间的统计显着关系。 ‰，夏季至秋季缺氧的总面积。对于NAO指数的正平均值（1月至3月），我们经常观察到早春时南风和西风的重复性增强，随后在西北大陆架的大部分地区出现了缺氧现象。我们提出了一个经验回归模型，用预测因子预测水的夏季-秋季缺氧的总面积：5月春季空气变暖的开始和盐度低于17.5‰的水的传播面积。缺氧区域的最大预测误差不超过5.5⋅10 3 kmm 2 ，即小于西北地区陆架总面积的2％黑海（北纬45°）。

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