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CEE volatility retreats on milder outlook

机译：展望温和，中欧和东欧波动率回落

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Polish spot prices climbed in week 4 on lower wind production, colder than average temperatures and power price inflation in neighboring countries, traders said. Baseload day ahead prices averaged Zloty 309.72/MWh (€72.26/MWh) on the TGE January 24, up 20% from Zloty 257.34/MWh January 17. Wind production was low, reaching only modest highs of 1.6 GW before falling back again at the end of the week. The temperature in Warsaw January 25 was forecast to be five degrees below average. The forecast for week 5 was for somewhat stronger wind and temperatures two degrees above average, which dampened the front-month February contract, one trader said. The February contract fell 1% to Zloty 269.49/MWh January 24, from Zloty 272.93/MWh January 17. Forward prices in carbon-sensitive Poland moved in tandem with EUA prices. The Cal-20 contract traded at Zloty 279.38/MWh January 24, up 1.6% from Zloty 275.05/MWh January 17. The market was surprised by additional import capacity made available from Germany, one trader said, with 1 GW of capacity available for January 25 instead of the usual 500 MW. Polish TSO PSE has capped imports from Germany over the past four years over fears of grid instability caused by loop flows and a 500 MW interconnector between Vierraden and Krajnik has been out for more than two years. The link has been under testing in recent months. PSE has previously said import capacity from Germany would double to 1 GW following the relaunch of the interconnector.
机译：交易商称，由于风能产量降低，比平均温度低和邻国的电价上涨，波兰现货价格在第4周上涨。 TGE 1月24日的基准日平均价格为兹罗提309.72 / MWh（€72.26 / MWh），较1月17日的兹罗提257.34 / MWh上涨20％。风力发电量较低，仅达到1.6 GW的适度高点，之后又回落。本周末。预计1月25日在华沙的温度将低于平均水平5度。一位贸易商称，对第5周的预测是风力和温度比平均水平高出2度，这减弱了近月的2月合约。 1月24日，2月份合同价格从1月17日的兹罗提272.93 / MWh下跌1％，至兹罗提269.49 / MWh。碳敏感的波兰的远期价格与EUA价格同步上涨。 1月24日，Cal-20合约交易价格为兹罗提279.38 / MWh，较1月17日的兹罗提275.05 / MWh上涨1.6％。一位贸易商称，市场对德国提供的额外进口容量感到惊讶，其中1月份的容量为1 GW。 25而不是通常的500 MW。波兰TSO PSE在过去四年中限制了从德国的进口，原因是担心环路造成的电网不稳定，而且Vierraden和Krajnik之间的500 MW互连器已经淘汰了两年以上。最近几个月，该链接已经过测试。 PSE此前曾表示，随着互连器的重新启动，从德国的进口容量将翻一番，达到1吉瓦。

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