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首页> 外文期刊>Polar biology >Statistical power: an important consideration in designing community-based monitoring programs for Arctic and sub-Arctic subsistence fisheries
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Statistical power: an important consideration in designing community-based monitoring programs for Arctic and sub-Arctic subsistence fisheries

机译：统计能力：在为北极和亚北极生计渔业设计基于社区的监测计划时的重要考虑因素

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摘要

Polar communities and management agencies require well-designed monitoring systems to determine whether harvesting is biologically sustainable. While it is known that life history traits such as length-at-age and fecundity will vary with population density, cost-efficient monitoring requires that these metrics be incorporated into monitoring programs only if their statistical power is high to detect change due to fishing. We present a simple computer-simulated power analysis technique to compare the ability of monitoring designs to detect changes in fish length-at-age and fecundity, after adding effects of exploitation. We developed a methodology for estimating statistical power from first principles using computer simulation techniques which can be applied regardless of the statistical variance pattern in the data. Statistical power increased when more fish were sampled and when larger effects were added. Initially, power increased rapidly by increasing the sample size, regardless of the effect added. However, after 40-50 fish were included in the sample, smaller increments of increased power were obtained; highlighting that a cost-benefit analysis would be necessary. When compared to exploitation experiments in the literature, the stock-specific power analysis used here was able to correctly predict the outcome (significant change observed or not) of the literature studies in most cases. This technique advances the ability of designers of monitoring programs to assess the efficiency of any type of monitoring metric. Further, the simplicity of this power analysis technique allows it to be tailored to different species, life history traits, or potential disturbances to the population.
机译：极地社区和管理机构需要精心设计的监控系统，以确定收割是否具有生物可持续性。众所周知，寿命历史和生育能力等特征会随着人口密度的变化而变化，但具有成本效益的监测要求仅在这些统计数据具有很高的统计能力以检测出因捕鱼而引起的变化时，才将这些度量标准纳入监测计划。我们提出了一种简单的计算机模拟的功率分析技术，以在添加开发效果后，比较监​​视设计检测鱼的成年长度和繁殖力变化的能力。我们开发了一种方法，用于使用计算机仿真技术根据第一原理估算统计功效，而无论数据中的统计差异模式如何，都可以应用该方法。当更多的鱼被采样并且添加了更大的影响时，统计能力增加。最初，无论增加何种效果，功率都会通过增加样本大小而迅速增加。但是，在样本中包含40至50条鱼后，获得的功率增加量较小；强调必须进行成本效益分析。与文献中的开发实验相比，在大多数情况下，此处使用的特定股票能力分析能够正确预测文献研究的结果（观察到或未观察到重大变化）。此技术提高了监视程序设计者评估任何类型的监视指标的效率的能力。此外，这种能力分析技术的简单性使其可以针对不同的物种，生活史特征或对种群的潜在干扰进行定制。

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  • 来源
    《Polar biology》 |2014年第10期|1435-1444|共10页
  • 作者

    M. VanGerwen-Toyne; D. M. Gillis; R. F. Tallman;

  • 作者单位

    University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada,Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 501 University Crescent,Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N6, Canada;

    Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba,212B Bio-Sci Bldg., 50 Sifton Road, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2,Canada;

    Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba,212B Bio-Sci Bldg., 50 Sifton Road, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2,Canada;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Arctic; Fisheries monitoring; Life history; Exploitation; Computer simulation;

    机译：北极;渔业监测;生活史;开发;计算机模拟;

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