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Predictors of invertebrate biomass and rate of advancement of invertebrate phenology across eight sites in the North American Arctic

机译：无脊椎动物生物量的预测因素，北美北极八个地点八个地点的无脊椎动物候力速度

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摘要

Average annual temperatures in the Arctic increased by 2-3 degrees C during the second half of the twentieth century. Because shorebirds initiate northward migration to Arctic nesting sites based on cues at distant wintering grounds, climate-driven changes in the phenology of Arctic invertebrates may lead to a mismatch between the nutritional demands of shorebirds and the invertebrate prey essential for egg formation and subsequent chick survival. To explore the environmental drivers affecting invertebrate availability, we modeled the biomass of invertebrates captured in modified Malaise-pitfall traps over three summers at eight Arctic Shorebird Demographics Network sites as a function of accumulated degree-days and other weather variables. To assess climate-driven changes in invertebrate phenology, we used data from the nearest long-term weather stations to hindcast invertebrate availability over 63 summers, 1950-2012. Our results confirmed the importance of both accumulated and daily temperatures as predictors of invertebrate availability while also showing that wind speed negatively affected invertebrate availability at the majority of sites. Additionally, our results suggest that seasonal prey availability for Arctic shorebirds is occurring earlier and that the potential for trophic mismatch is greatest at the northernmost sites, where hindcast invertebrate phenology advanced by approximately 1-2.5 days per decade. Phenological mismatch could have long-term population-level effects on shorebird species that are unable to adjust their breeding schedules to the increasingly earlier invertebrate phenologies.
机译：二十世纪下半年，北极的平均年度温度增加了2-3摄氏度。因为山鸟开始基于遥远的越冬场地的线索向北迁移到北极筑巢网站，北极无脊椎动物候选的气候驱动的变化可能导致夏令生的营养需求与卵形成和随后的鸡肉生存所必需的无脊椎动物猎物之间的不匹配。为了探索影响无脊椎动物可用性的环境驱动因素，我们将在八北极岸鸟类数据标志网站的三个夏天的修改的Malise-inverfall陷阱中捕获的无脊椎动物的生物量设计为累积度天和其他天气变量的函数。为了评估无脊椎动物候选的气候驱动的变化，我们使用了来自最近的长期气象站的数据，以超过63颗夏季的Hindcast无脊椎动物可用性，1950 - 2012年。我们的结果证实，累积和日常温度的重要性是无脊椎动物可用性的预测因子，同时还表明风速对大多数网站的风速受到负面影响的无脊椎动物可用性。此外，我们的结果表明，北极岸鸟的季节性猎物可用性早些时候发生，并且在最北端的场地最伟大的途中的潜力，其中Hindcast无脊椎动物候选每十年大约1-2.5天。纯粹的错配可以对无法将育种时间调整到越来越早期的无脊椎动物的育种时间表的长期人口水平影响。

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