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Strong prospective trends in the Arctic and future opportunities in logistics

机译：北极强劲的前瞻性趋势和物流的未来机会

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摘要

The geopolitical importance of the Arctic region is growing. Behind this growing importance are many trends and changes in the Arctic landscape. We call these trends as strong prospective trends (SPTs), which affect the development of clusters and logistics needs and provide new business opportunities in the Arctic region. In this paper, the authors identify SPTs in the Arctic landscape and assess their impact on development needs and the emerging business opportunities in logistics. The study is based on empirical material collected in SMARCTIC future workshops where experts identified the most important SPTs for the Arctic business environment and for emerging new business opportunities before 2030. The study draws on an extensive literature review and on focused expertise of the core research group who also performed a cross-impact analysis of the SPTs. According to the foresight analyses of the expert workshops and our research group analysis, the most important trends in the Arctic region can be associated with natural resources such as raw materials and energy as well as technologies for their utilization. Novel technologies such as digital technology and biotechnologies are important, too, but not in such a leading role as they typically are in industrialized regions.
机译：北极地区的地缘政治重要性越来越高。日益重要的背后是北极景观的许多趋势和变化。我们称这些趋势为强烈的预期趋势（SPT），它会影响集群的发展和物流需求，并在北极地区提供新的商机。在本文中，作者确定了北极地区的SPT，并评估了它们对发展需求和物流中新兴商机的影响。该研究基于在SMARCTIC未来工作坊中收集的经验材料，专家们确定了2030年前对于北极商业环境和新兴商机最重要的SPT。该研究借鉴了广泛的文献综述和核心研究小组的专业知识他还对SPT进行了交叉影响分析。根据专家研讨会的远景分析和我们的研究组分析，北极地区最重要的趋势可能与原材料，能源等自然资源及其利用技术有关。数字技术和生物技术等新技术也很重要，但并不像工业化地区那样具有领导作用。

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