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Connecting the dots: assessing the accuracy of geographic profiling software

机译：点点滴滴：评估地理概况分析软件的准确性

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to conduct an independent analysis of all existing geographic profiling software packages to determine if any one is more accurate than the others or if any of the software systems are any more accurate than simple spatial distribution strategies at locating the home base of serial offenders. Design/methodology/approach - An analysis was conducted of all existing geographic profiling software as well as three spatial distribution methods of profiling. Differences in accuracy were assessed using four different methods; dichotomous profile accuracy, simple error measurement, profile error distance, and average top profile area. Findings - Results indicate that not only are the different profiling software systems no more accurate than the spatial distribution control methods, but that accuracy in general was marginal at best. In addition results indicated that certain crimes, such as commercial robbery, were particularly difficult to profile and that the number of crimes in a series was not by itself a good indicator of success of a profile. Research limitations/implications - The paper shows that future research needs to focus more on determining how various factors such as city type, crime type, road network and spatial aspects of a crime series (dispersion and search area) impact profiling accuracy. In addition future research should also endeavor to determine whether these advanced strategies are substantially more accurate than other simple profiling strategies such as human prediction. Finally, future research should also seek to examine geographic profiling in a real world setting and how geographic profiling impacts the success of open investigations. Practical implications - Practically, this study casts doubt not only on the overall accuracy of profiling strategies in predicting the likely home location of an offender, but also on whether probability strategies are substantially better than spatial distribution strategies. Originality/value - This research was the first to independently analyze all of the existing geographic profiling systems against control methods for the purpose of determining the accuracy of these different methods.
机译：目的-本文的目的是对所有现有的地理剖析软件包进行独立分析，以确定在确定地理定位软件包时，哪个软件包比其他软件包更准确，或者是否有任何软件系统比简单的空间分布策略更准确。连环犯罪者的本垒。设计/方法/方法-对所有现有的地理剖析软件以及三种剖析的空间分布方法进行了分析。使用四种不同的方法评估准确性差异。二分型材精度，简单的误差测量，型材误差距离和平均顶部型材面积。结果-结果表明，不同的配置文件软件系统不仅不比空间分布控制方法更准确，而且总体上说，其准确性至高无上。此外，结果表明，某些犯罪，例如商业抢劫，尤其难以查明，而且一系列犯罪的数量本身并不是成功查明案件的良好指标。研究的局限性/意义-本文表明，未来的研究需要更多地关注确定诸如城市类型，犯罪类型，道路网络和犯罪系列的空间方面（分散和搜索区域）之类的各种因素如何影响分析精度。此外，未来的研究还应努力确定这些高级策略是否比其他简单的概要分析策略（如人类预测）准确得多。最后，未来的研究还应寻求在现实世界中检查地理分布图，以及地理分布图如何影响公开调查的成功。实际意义-实际上，这项研究不仅使人们对仿形策略在预测犯罪者可能的家庭所在地方面的总体准确性产生怀疑，而且对概率策略是否比空间分布策略明显更好也产生了怀疑。原创性/价值-这项研究是第一个针对控制方法独立分析所有现有地理配置文件系统的方法，目的是确定这些不同方法的准确性。

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