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Suspicious preoperational activities and law enforcement interdiction of terrorist plots

机译：恐怖阴谋的可疑的术前活动和执法拦截

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide a metric for validating the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting (SAR) Initiative's (NSI) sixteen-category instrument, which is designed to guide law enforcement in the collection and analysis of suspicious behaviors preceding serious crimes, including terrorist attacks. Design/methodology/approach Data on suspicious preoperational activities and terrorism incident outcomes in the USA between 1972 and 2013 come from the American Terrorism Study (ATS). Using a mixed-method approach, the authors conduct descriptive and multivariate analyses to examine the frequencies of the least and most prevalent suspicious activities (or SAR indicators) and how they predict the likelihood of terrorism prevention. In addition, the authors contextualize how configurations of SAR indicators are associated with the successful thwarting of terrorism incidents by law enforcement using an analytical method known as conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC). Findings The study reveals several key findings. First, certain behaviors categorized as suspicious, such as making threats, occur more frequently than others. Second, making threats, conducting surveillance and terrorist recruitment/financing predict law enforcement interdiction in terrorism plots, while misrepresentation (or the manufacturing and use of false documents) is more associated with terrorist success. Third, prevalent SAR indicators operate differently in the context of various combinations of suspicious activities to shape the likelihood for law enforcement interdiction.
机译：目的本文的目的是为验证全国可疑活动报告（SAR）倡议（NSI）的十六类工具提供一个度量标准，旨在指导执法人员收集和分析严重犯罪之前的可疑行为，包括恐怖袭击。设计/方法/方法关于美国在1972年至2013年之间可疑的术前活动和恐怖主义事件结果的数据来自美国恐怖主义研究（ATS）。作者使用混合方法进行描述性和多变量分析，以检查最少和最普遍的可疑活动（或SAR指标）的发生频率，以及它们如何预测预防恐怖主义的可能性。此外，作者使用称为案例配置的联合分析（CACC）的分析方法，通过执法将SAR指标的配置与成功挫败恐怖主义事件相关联的背景情况。研究结果揭示了一些关键发现。首先，被归类为可疑的某些行为（例如构成威胁）比其他行为更频繁地发生。其次，进行威胁，进行监视以及恐怖分子的招募/供资可以预测恐怖主义阴谋中的执法活动被阻截，而虚假陈述（或制造和使用虚假文件）则与恐怖分子的成功更为相关。第三，在各种可疑活动组合的背景下，流行的SAR指标的运作方式有所不同，从而影响了执法人员进行拦截的可能性。

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