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首页> 外文期刊>Polish Journal of Environmental Studies >Analysis of CO_2 Emission Drives Based on Energy Consumption and Prediction of Low Carbon Scenarios: a Case Study of Hebei Province
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Analysis of CO_2 Emission Drives Based on Energy Consumption and Prediction of Low Carbon Scenarios: a Case Study of Hebei Province

机译：基于能耗和低碳情景预测的CO_2排放驱动分析 - 以河北省为例

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摘要

The rapid consumption of energy has caused a surge in carbon emissions and led to serious ecological problems. This paper takes Hebei Province as the research area. First, carbon emissions related to energy consumption are calculated from 2001 to 2015, and then the decomposition analysis of the carbon emissions data is performed by using the LMDI method based on the extended IPAT model. Finally, according to the potential drivers derived from the decomposition results and the future trend of low-carbon development, three scenarios are set up, namely inertial emission reduction scenarios, relative emission reduction scenarios, and absolute emission reduction scenarios. The results show that the overall carbon emissions from 2001 to 2015 are on an upward trend, increasing by 4.08 times during the study period. Economic progress is the main driving factor for the rising CO2 in emitter, followed by energy consumption structure and population size, and the effect of technological progress has inhibited the increasing carbon emissions. The gradual optimization of Hebei's industrial structure has changed the industrial structure effect from promotion to suppression. The final scenario analysis indicates that the relative emission reduction scenario and absolute emission reduction scenario can both achieve the Copenhagen emissions reduction target and the Paris Agreement target, but the relative emissions reduction scenario has become the most reasonable low- carbon pathway. Finally, by designing and implementing a local carbon emissions trading system, regional development could be encouraged to be closer to a relative emissions reduction scenario. Low-carbon transformation in other regions would be exerted by the avenue opened by this paper.
机译：能量的快速消耗导致碳排放量激增，并导致了严重的生态问题。本文以河北省为研究区。首先，与能源消耗相关的碳排放量从2001年到2015年计算，然后通过使用基于扩展IPAT模型的LMDI方法来执行碳排放数据的分解分析。最后，根据源于分解结果的潜在驱动因素和低碳发展的未来趋势，建立了三种场景，即惯性排放场景，相对排放场景和绝对排放减少方案。结果表明，2001年至2015年的整体碳排放量在上升趋势，在研究期间增加了4.08倍。经济进展是发射器上升二氧化碳的主要驱动因素，其次是能耗结构和人口规模，技术进步的影响抑制了碳排放的增加。河北产业结构的逐步优化改变了促进抑制的产业结构效应。最终的情景分析表明，相对排放降低情景和绝对排放减少方案可以实现哥本哈根排放量减少目标和巴黎协定目标，但相对排放量已经成为最合理的低碳途径。最后，通过设计和实施当地的碳排放交易系统，可能会鼓励区域发展更接近相对排放方案。其他地区的低碳转型将由本文开通的大道施加。

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