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首页> 外文期刊>Polish Journal of Environmental Studies >Investigating Environmental Factors for Locating Mangrove Ex-situ Conservation Zones Using GIS Spatial Techniques and the Logistic Regression Algorithm in Mangrove Forests in Iran
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Investigating Environmental Factors for Locating Mangrove Ex-situ Conservation Zones Using GIS Spatial Techniques and the Logistic Regression Algorithm in Mangrove Forests in Iran

机译：使用GIS空间技术和Logistic回归算法研究伊朗红树林森林定位红树林易居保护区的环境因素

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摘要

Along the coastal strip of tropical and subtropical regions, mangrove forests extend as one of the most productive coastal ecosystems. Iran is considered one of the most western coastal habitats of these communities in Asia. Unfortunately, in recent years, despite their economic and ecological importance, these forests have been threatened mainly due to human activities, which necessitate the need for protecting and developing these ecosystems. Ex-situ conservation, which aims to transfer a species to right place for preservation and development, is one of the most effective ways of protecting these forests. It is obvious that the successful transfer of a species in order to protect it as ex-situ conservation requires a comprehensive environmental assessment. The present paper employs a spatio-statistical methodology to delineate areas enriched with environmental parameters and weather factors necessary to support a mangrove ex-situ conservation plan in Hormozgan Province, Iran. With extensive effort in reviewing the related studies in the literature, we elicted a collection of 14 environmental and weather indicators critical to maintaining mangrove stands in a sustainable ecological environment. For screening the number of indicators to environmental variables with highest importance in our research, we used the Delphi method to quantify expert attitudes in order to develop a suitability index collection. Accordingly, an integrated application of GIS spatial analysis and a logistic regression algorithm were used to build an explicit spatial predictive model that evaluates the targeted area in terms of identified factors, thereby quantifying the potential of suitable zones for locating mangrove ex-situ conservation sites. Predictive performance of the developed model was evaluated based on Kappa index and omission error rate. According to our results, land proneness to a mangrove plantation has a high positive correlation with environmental attributes such as temperature fluctuation, land form, and mean tidal level, and has a negative correlation with slope and wave height. Our results should be considered advantageous for decision makers and planners in the field of mangrove ecosystems.
机译：沿着热带和亚热带地区的沿海地带，红树林是最富生产力的沿海生态系统之一。伊朗被认为是亚洲这些社区中最西部的沿海栖息地之一。不幸的是，近年来，尽管这些森林具有经济和生态重要性，但它们主要由于人类活动而受到威胁，这需要保护和发展这些生态系统。异地保护旨在将一个物种转移到正确的地方进行保护和发展，这是保护这些森林的最有效方法之一。显然，为了保护物种作为异地保护而成功地进行转移，需要进行全面的环境评估。本文采用时空统计方法来描述丰富的环境参数和天气因素，以支持伊朗霍尔木兹甘省的红树林迁地保护计划。通过大量的文献回顾相关研究，我们得出了14种环境和天气指标的集合，这些指标对于在可持续的生态环境中维持红树林的地位至关重要。为了筛选对我们的研究最重要的环境变量的指标数量，我们使用了Delphi方法对专家的态度进行量化，以开发适合性指标集合。因此，使用GIS空间分析和逻辑回归算法的集成应用程序来建立一个明确的空间预测模型，该模型可根据已识别的因素评估目标区域，从而量化用于定位红树林异地保护区的合适区域的潜力。基于Kappa指数和遗漏错误率评估了开发模型的预测性能。根据我们的结果，倾向于红树林的土地与环境属性（如温度波动，土地形态和平均潮汐水平）具有高度正相关，与坡度和波浪高度呈负相关。我们的结果应被认为对红树林生态系统领域的决策者和规划者有利。

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