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首页> 外文期刊>Population, Space and Place >Why did fewer people change address in England and Wales in the 2000s than in the 1970s? Evidence from an analysis of the ONS Longitudinal Study
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Why did fewer people change address in England and Wales in the 2000s than in the 1970s? Evidence from an analysis of the ONS Longitudinal Study

机译：为什么在2000年代英格兰和威尔士的人员更改的地址较少，而不是20世纪70年代？来自分析纵向研究的证据

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The paper explores why internal migration rates fell in England and Wales between 1971 to 1981 and 2001 to 2011. It considers all-address changing rates, short-distance migration (address changes involving moves of 10 km or less) and long-distance migration (moves of 50 km or more). It does so by using the Blinder-Oaxaca method to decompose the differences between the 2 time periods into a compositional component (changes in the aggregate migration rate attributable to increases or decreases in more or less migratory groups of the population) and a rate component-the extent to which these population groups behave differently in the 2 time periods. The analysis finds that changing population structure since the 1970s does not fully account for the observed decreases. Instead, it seems that changed migratory behaviour and in particular, a large general downward effect that cuts across all population groups are the most important component. The greater decrease in address changing observed for all moves and those of less than 10 km (compared with longer distance moves) points the search for further explanations in the direction of factors known to be associated with short-distance moves such as the housing market, and this is identified as an avenue for more research.
机译：该文件探讨了1971年至1981年至2011年的英格兰和威尔士的内部移民税率下降。它考虑了全部地址的变化率，短途迁移（地址变化涉及10公里或更小的移动）和长途迁移（移动50公里或以上）。它通过使用泡菜-Aaxaca方法来分解2次时间段之间的差异进入组成组分（占这些迁移率的总迁移率的变化，这些迁移率在群体的或多或少的涉及人口群体中增加或减少）和速率分量 - 这些人口群体在2次期间表现不同的程度。分析发现，自20世纪70年代以来不完全占所观察到的降低以来的人口结构。相反，它似乎改变了迁移行为，特别是跨越所有人口群体的大致向下效应是最重要的组成部分。对于所有移动的地址变化的更大减少，并且少于10 km（与较长距离移动相比）指向所知的因素方向上的进一步解释，如外壳市场，这被确定为更多研究的途径。

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