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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrotechnical Construction >VARIATION OF THE BOUNDARIES OF GEOTEMPERATURE ZONES OF THE RUSSIAN CRYOGENIC REGION IN THE PRESENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING
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VARIATION OF THE BOUNDARIES OF GEOTEMPERATURE ZONES OF THE RUSSIAN CRYOGENIC REGION IN THE PRESENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING

机译：全球变暖存在下俄罗斯深冷区地温带边界的变化

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摘要

Climatologists predict global warming of the earth's climate in this century. In the opinion of many researchers, the most probable scenario is that by the middle of the century the mean annual air temperature T_a will increase by 1-4℃. Climatic warming of such a degree will eventually alter the temperature field and geotechnical properties of the permafrost. This process, in turn, will affect the reliability and longevity of engineering facilities in the cryogenic region, i.e., the region of proliferation of permafrost, which is known to cover more than 60% of the Russian land area (Fig. 1). Proceeding from the global warming scenario, several authors have predicted a change in the evolution of present-day geocryological conditions in the territories of Russia and North America by the years 2025-2050. Various procedures have been employed to predict the possible changes in the geocryological environment: retroselective analysis of series of observations at meteorological stations and of cryolithozone monitoring targets, etc. [4, 15, 5, 6, 17, 18, 19, 20, 16, 13, 11, 12, 1]. Nonetheless, such estimates have been made either in isolated regions or detached from the specific, extremely irregular geocryological environment of the entire Russian permafrost region.
机译：气候学家预测，本世纪全球气候将变暖。许多研究人员认为，最可能的情况是，到本世纪中叶，年平均气温T_a将增加1-4℃。这种程度的气候变暖最终将改变多年冻土的温度场和岩土性质。反过来，这一过程将影响低温地区（即多年冻土扩散区）的工程设施的可靠性和寿命，众所周知，该地区覆盖了俄罗斯陆地面积的60％以上（图1）。从全球变暖的情景出发，几位作者预测，到2025年至2050年，俄罗斯和北美地区当今的地质学条件将发生变化。已经采用了各种程序来预测地质环境的可能变化：对气象站的一系列观测结果和冰冻区监视目标等进行回溯选择性分析[4，15，5，6，17，17，18，19，20，16 ，13，11，12，1]。但是，这种估计是在偏远地区进行的，或者是与整个俄罗斯多年冻土区的特定，极其不规则的地质学环境分开的。

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