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An efficient importance sampling method for long-term fatigue assessment of deepwater risers with time domain analysis

机译：基于时域分析的深水立管长期疲劳评估的有效重要性抽样方法

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摘要

A floating production system is exposed to many sea conditions over its lifetime. Consequently, fatigue design of a riser system is challenging, owing to the need to consider the long-term wave condition, characterized by the joint statistics of the significant wave height and peak wave period. The problem becomes computationally intractable if dynamic analysis is performed in the time domain, which is often necessary due to nonlinearities. This paper outlines a new efficient approach for long-term riser fatigue analysis, in conjunction with time domain simulations. The time series of an irregular wave elevation is widely simulated as the sum of regular wave components with random amplitudes and phase angles. Importance sampling is the basis of the proposed approach; however, it is not exploited for variance reduction. Instead, this technique allows one to simulate the wave amplitudes from a distribution different from the original one. This implies that following a dynamic analysis, the results for many sea states can be obtained by simply altering the importance sampling weighting function. The proposed approach is enhanced by a succession of additional techniques to reduce the sampling variability. Since importance sampling is not an approximate method, but an alternative means of simulation, the predicted long-term fatigue damage is unbiased. The standard error is estimated via bootstrapping. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：浮动生产系统在其整个生命周期中都暴露于多种海洋条件。因此，由于需要考虑以显着波高和波峰周期的联合统计为特征的长期波浪状况，立管系统的疲劳设计具有挑战性。如果在时域中执行动态分析，则该问题在计算上变得棘手，由于非线性，这通常是必需的。本文概述了一种新的有效的长期立管疲劳分析方法，并结合了时域仿真。广泛地将不规则波高程的时间序列模拟为具有随机振幅和相位角的规则波分量之和。重要抽样是所提出方法的基础；但是，它不能用于减少方差。取而代之的是，该技术允许人们从与原始分布不同的分布中模拟波幅。这意味着，在进行动态分析之后，只需更改重要性抽样加权函数即可获得许多海况的结果。一系列其他技术可以减少采样变异性，从而增强了所提出的方法。由于重要性抽样不是一种近似方法，而是一种替代的模拟方法，因此预测的长期疲劳损伤是无偏的。通过自举估计标准错误。 （C）2016 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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