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Exchange-Rate Risk and Exports

机译：汇率风险和出口

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摘要

This article investigates the hypothesis that exchange-rate risk may have an effect on exports for a set of transition countries, namely, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. To assess this effect, although a two-step estimation approach has earned an extensive empirical record in the literature, a number of studies in this context do not appear to support this approach due to a potential generated regressor issue. This dissonance in a two-step estimation procedure seems to have been somewhat resolved by a relatively new branch of empirical approach that exploits a multivari-ate version of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in-mean models. The findings suggest that the effect of exchange-rate risk seems to be detrimental in Belarus and Ukraine. However, for Russia and Kazakhstan, which are heavily dependent on crude oil exports, the effect has been found to be indeterminate.
机译：本文研究了以下假设，即汇率风险可能对一组转型国家（白俄罗斯，哈萨克斯坦，俄罗斯和乌克兰）的出口产生影响。为了评估这种效果，尽管在文献中使用了两步估算方法获得了广泛的经验记录，但由于潜在的回归变量问题，在此背景下的许多研究似乎都不支持这种方法。两步估算程序中的这种不和谐似乎已通过相对较新的经验方法分支得到解决，该方法利用了广义自回归条件异方差均值模型的多元版本。研究结果表明，汇率风险的影响在白俄罗斯和乌克兰看来是有害的。但是，对于严重依赖原油出口的俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦，其影响是不确定的。

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