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Causality Between Government Expenditures and National Output in Uzbekistan

机译：乌兹别克斯坦政府支出与国民生产之间的因果关系

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摘要

This article investigates the relationship between government expenditures and national output in Uzbekistan by estimating two vector autoregression (VAR) models, performing impulse response analysis and testing for Granger causality over the period 1996-2011. The results indicate that there is strong Granger causality from economic growth to the growth rates of total and disaggregated government expenditures, but reverse causality is only weakly, if at all, significant. This suggests that over the sample period a growing share of government expenditures would not have contributed to economic growth in Uzbekistan, most likely due to inefficiency. Accordingly, the Uzbek government should strive to make its expenditures more productive to exert a positive effect on economic growth.
机译：本文通过估计两个向量自回归（VAR）模型，进行脉冲响应分析并测试1996-2011年期间的格兰杰因果关系，研究了乌兹别克斯坦政府支出与国民产出之间的关系。结果表明，从经济增长到政府总支出和分类支出的增长率之间存在很强的格兰杰因果关系，但反向因果关系仅是微弱的（如果有的话）。这表明，在样本期内，政府支出所占份额的增长不会对乌兹别克斯坦的经济增长做出贡献，这很可能是由于效率低下所致。因此，乌兹别克斯坦政府应努力提高其支出，以对经济增长产生积极影响。

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