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Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment in Russia, 1994-2003

机译:1994-2003年俄罗斯自然失业率估算

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摘要

As a result of liberalization of the Russian economy, a new phe-nomenon for the country emerged at the beginning of the 1990s: official unemployment. However, contrary to widespread predictions, it did not become a dominant factor in the labor market and its scale was not catastrophic. During the reform years, the total drop in production was almost 50 percent, but the maximum decline in employment was limited to 18 percent, while the unemployment rate did not exceed 13-14 percent at any time during this period. By 2003 it had fallen to less than 8 percent of the labor force. This is because the labor market's initial adjustment occurred mainly through decreased real wages, rather than through reduced numbers of employees. This was largely due to the Central Bank of Russia's expansionist monetary policies which brought about hyperinflation at the beginning of the 1990s. This, in turn, led to a reduction in real household incomes, even while they were nominally rising. In addition, one of the most important trends in the labor market in recent years was a decline in the population's economic activity, or the departure of working-age people from the labor market. According to Goskomstat of Russia, in 1992-2001 the number of economically inactive working-age people rose by 6.6 million, while the economic activity of the population as a whole declined by more than 6 percent, which is equivalent to 7.7 million people leaving the labor market.
机译:俄罗斯经济自由化的结果是,在1990年代初出现了该国的新现象:正式失业。但是,与普遍的预测相反,它并没有成为劳动力市场的主导因素,其规模也不是灾难性的。在改革年代,总产量下降了近50%,但就业率的最大下降被限制在18%,而在此期间的任何时候失业率都没有超过13-14%。到2003年,这一比例下降到不足劳动力的8%。这是因为劳动力市场的最初调整主要是通过减少实际工资而不是通过减少雇员人数来实现的。这主要是由于俄罗斯中央银行的扩张主义货币政策在1990年代初导致了恶性通货膨胀。反过来,这导致实际家庭收入减少,即使名义上名义上是在增加。此外,近年来劳动力市场最重要的趋势之一是人口经济活动的下降,或者是劳动年龄人口离开劳动力市场。根据俄罗斯的Goskomstat,在1992年至2001年间,从事经济活动的适龄劳动者人数增加了660万,而整个人口的经济活动下降了6%以上,相当于770万人离开了劳动力市场。

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