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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers >System dynamics simulation on municipal solid waste in Hong Kong
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System dynamics simulation on municipal solid waste in Hong Kong

机译：香港城市固体废物的系统动力学模拟

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摘要

The municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in Hong Kong (HK) is increasing at a rapid pace, resulting in health and environmental issues for the public. Compared with Singapore and Shanghai, HK has a higher MSW generation rate due to less effective measures and government policies. To forecast the MSW generation and recycling in HK, system dynamics modelling was conducted using Vensim 6.0, based on the data collected from semi-structured interviews and official reports in the Environmental Protection Department of HK, the National Environmental Agency Singapore and Shanghai Environmental Protection Agency that regularly provide statistics on waste outputs. The simulation results show that shortly the MSW in HK will increase based on the current growth rates, and along with that, recycling will also increase. The recycling rates will offset that of the MSW generation due to the closure of landfills, and MSW will be effectively recycled due to more advanced disposal techniques. The strategies developed by the HK government will be able to manage the MSW disposal, but the city will experience more severe MSW conditions in the future as its landfills are expected to close earlier than planned. Recommendations for HK to deal with MSW generation were derived from the experiences in Singapore and Shanghai.
机译：香港（香港）的城市生活垃圾（MSW）增长迅速，给公众带来了健康和环境问题。与新加坡和上海相比，由于有效措施和政府政策的欠缺，香港的城市生活垃圾发电率更高。为了预测香港城市固体废物的产生和循环利用，使用Vensim 6.0进行了系统动力学建模，该模型基于香港环境保护署，新加坡国家环境保护局和上海环境保护局的半结构化访谈和官方报告收集的数据定期提供废物产出的统计数据。模拟结果表明，根据目前的增长率，香港的城市生活垃圾将很快增加，随之而来的是回收利用也会增加。由于关闭了垃圾填埋场，其回收率将与城市生活垃圾的产生速度相抵消，而由于采用了更先进的处置技术，城市生活垃圾将得到有效回收。香港政府制定的策略将能够管理城市生活垃圾的处置，但由于该城市的垃圾填埋场预计将比计划提前关闭，因此未来城市将面临更加严峻的城市生活垃圾状况。有关新加坡处理上海城市生活垃圾的建议来自新加坡和上海的经验。

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