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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers. Municipal Engineer >The 1995 UK drought—a signal of climatic instability?
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The 1995 UK drought—a signal of climatic instability?

机译：1995年的英国干旱-气候不稳定的信号吗？

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摘要

Drought conditions in the UK produced considerable water supply stress during 1995 and attracted substantial public, political and scientific interest. In this paper the drought's extent and severity throughout the spring and summer period is examined from a water resources perspective, within the context of the unusual climatic conditions which have characterized much of the last 20 years. The last two decades have seen both an exaggeration in the north-west to south-east rainfall gradient across Britain and a more distinct partitioning of annual rainfall totals between the winter and summer half-years. In addition, most of the recent past has been remarkably mild, encouraging exceptionally high rates of evaporation. These tendencies, which show a broad consistency with a number of favoured climate change scenarios, have raised questions regarding the resilience of existing water resource management strategies. In the context of historical rainfall and temperature records, the level of risk adopted by the water industry is shown to be of the right order. However, recent patterns of rainfall, evaporative losses and peak water demands suggest the type of water supply stress experienced during 1995 may now be occurring with a greater frequency. The recent clustering of hot, dry summers—together with the associated surge in water demand—implies that the water industry should direct more attention to contingency planning based on substantially lower return periods than those reported for drought events over the last 20 years.
机译：英国的干旱状况在1995年给供水带来了巨大压力，并引起了公众，政治和科学的浓厚兴趣。本文从水资源的角度出发，在过去20年大部分时间所特有的异常气候条件的背景下，研究了整个春季和夏季的干旱程度和严重程度。在过去的二十年中，整个英国的西北至东南雨量梯度都得到了夸大，冬季和夏季半年之间的年雨量总量划分更加明显。此外，最近的大部分时间都非常温和，这鼓励了极高的蒸发速度。这些趋势显示出与许多有利的气候变化情景的广泛一致性，从而对现有水资源管理策略的弹性提出了质疑。在历史降雨和温度记录的背景下，水行业所采取的风险水平显示出正确的顺序。但是，最近的降雨，蒸发损失和高峰需水情况表明，1995年经历的供水压力类型现在可能出现的频率更高。最近炎热干燥的夏季的聚在一起，加上随之而来的需水量的增加，意味着水行业应将更多的注意力放在应急计划上，该计划的回报期要比过去20年干旱事件报告的要低得多。

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