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Are decisions under risk malleable?

机译:风险决策是否具有延展性?

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摘要

Human decision making under risk and uncertainty may depend on individual involvement in the outcome-generating process. Expected utility theory is silent on this issue. Prospect theory in its current form offers little, if any, prediction of how or why involvement in a process should matter, although it may offer ex post interpretations of empirical findings. Well-known findings in psychology demonstrate that when subjects exercise more involvement or choice in lottery procedures, they value their lottery tickets more highly. This often is interpreted as an "illusion of control," meaning that when subjects are more involved in a lottery, they may believe they are more likely to win, perhaps because they perceive that they have more control over the outcome. Our experimental design eliminates several possible alternative explanations for the results of previous studies in an experiment that varies the degree and type of involvement in lottery procedures. We find that in treatments with more involvement subjects on average place less rather than more value on their lottery tickets. One possible explanation for this is that involvement interacts with loss aversion by causing subjects to weigh losses more heavily than they would otherwise. One implication of our study is that involvement, either independently or in interaction with myopic loss aversion, may help explain the extreme risk aversion of bond investors.
机译:在风险和不确定性下的人为决策可能取决于个人参与结果生成过程。期望效用理论在这个问题上保持沉默。尽管可能会事后解释经验发现,但目前形式的前景理论几乎无法预测参与流程的方式或原因,尽管有的话。心理学上的著名发现表明,当受试者在彩票程序中进行更多的参与或选择时,他们会更加重视彩票。这通常被解释为“控制的幻觉”,这意味着当受试者更多地参与彩票时,他们可能会认为他们更有可能获胜,也许是因为他们认为自己对结果有更多的控制权。我们的实验设计消除了对先前研究结果的几种可能的替代解释,而先前研究的结果会改变参与彩票程序的程度和类型。我们发现,在参与度更高的治疗中,受试者平均而言在其彩票上的价值更少而不是更多。对此的一种可能解释是,参与会导致受试者比其他人更沉重地权衡损失,从而与损失厌恶感相互作用。我们的研究的一个含义是,无论是独立参与还是与近视损失规避相配合,参与都可以帮助解释债券投资者的极端风险规避。

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