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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Point process modelling of the Afghan War Diary
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Point process modelling of the Afghan War Diary

机译：阿富汗战争日记的点过程建模

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摘要

Modern conflicts are characterized by an ever increasing use of information and sensing technology, resulting in vast amounts of high resolution data. Modelling and prediction of conflict, however, remain challenging tasks due to the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of the data typically available. Here we propose the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modelling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. Using ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, we provide a predictive framework able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions. We demonstrate our methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary. Our results show that the approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from previous years.
机译：现代冲突的特征是不断增加的信息和传感技术的使用，从而产生了大量的高分辨率数据。但是，由于通常可用数据的异构性和动态性，对冲突进行建模和预测仍然是具有挑战性的任务。在这里，我们建议使用动态时空建模工具来识别冲突中的复杂基础过程，例如扩散，迁移，异质升级和波动。利用来自统计，信号处理和生态学的思想，我们提供了一个预测框架，该框架能够吸收数据并给出对预测的置信度估计。我们在WikiLeaks阿富汗战争日记中展示了我们的方法。我们的结果表明，该方法可以仅基于前几年的数据就可以深入了解冲突动态，并可以在统计上对2010年武装反对派团体的活动做出准确的前瞻性预测。

著录项

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  • 作者

    Andrew Zammit-Mangion; Michael Dewar; Visakan Kadirkamanathan; Guido Sanguinetti;

  • 作者单位

    School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9AB, United Kingdom,University/British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Queen's Medical Research Institute, Edinburgh EH16 4TJ, United Kingdom;

    Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027;

    Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 3JD, United Kingdom;

    School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9AB, United Kingdom,SynthSys-Systems and Synethic Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JD, United Kingdom;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    conflict prediction; point processes; variational bayes;

    机译：冲突预测;点过程;贝叶斯;

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