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Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies

机译：核电经济学和减缓气候变化政策

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摘要

The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy.
机译：2011年3月在日本福岛核电站发生的事件引起了人们对核电站安全运行的质疑，政策领域对现有核电站的提前退役进行了辩论，并得到了监管机构的考虑。而且，建造新核电站的未来是高度不确定的。如果核电政策变得更加严格，那么减缓气候变化的一种潜在选择将越来越少。但是，在缓解气候变化的文献中缺少对包括提前退休在内的核电政策的系统分析。我们应用能源经济模型框架来得出情景并分析这两个政策领域之间的相互作用和权衡。我们的结果表明，到2020年，核电厂的提前退休将使全球GDP累计折现0.07％。如果此外不包括新的核投资，总损失将翻一番。跨期碳预算所施加的气候政策对限制核电使用的政策的增量成本的影响很小。但是，与限制使用核电的政策相比，气候政策的影响要大得多。碳预算导致到2020年全球GDP短期累计折现减少0.64％。由于天然气发电的增加，填补了新出现的电力供应缺口，碳预算方法的跨时灵活性可以实现更高的近期排放量。 ，但仍保持在总体碳预算范围内。减少需求和提高效率是第二个主要应对策略。

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