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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >The 27-year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes
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The 27-year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes

机译：大堡礁27年珊瑚覆盖率下降及其原因

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摘要

The world's coral reefs are being degraded, and the need to reduce local pressures to offset the effects of increasing global pressures is now widely recognized. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of coral cover, identifies the main drivers of coral mortality, and quantifies the rates of potential recovery of the Great Barrier Reef. Based on the world's most extensive time series data on reef condition (2,258 surveys of 214 reefs over 1985-2012), we show a major decline in coral cover'from 28.0% to 13.8% (0.53% y~(-1)), a loss of 50.7% of initial coral cover. Tropical cyclones, coral predation by crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), and coral bleaching accounted for 48%, 42%, and 10% of the respective estimated losses, amounting to 3.38% y~(-1) mortality rate. Importantly, the relatively pristine northern region showed no overall decline. The estimated rate of increase in coral cover in the absence of cyclones, COTS, and bleaching was 2.85% y~(-1), demonstrating substantial capacity for recovery of reefs. In the absence of COTS, coral cover would increase at 0.89% y~(-1), despite ongoing losses due to cyclones and bleaching. Thus, reducing COTS populations, by improving water quality and developing alternative control measures, could prevent further coral decline and improve the outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. Such strategies can, however, only be successful if climatic conditions are stabilized, as losses due to bleaching and cyclones will otherwise increase.
机译：世界上的珊瑚礁正在退化，现在已经广泛认识到需要减轻局部压力以抵消全球压力不断增加的影响。这项研究调查了珊瑚覆盖的时空动态，确定了珊瑚死亡的主要驱动因素，并量化了大堡礁的潜在恢复速度。根据世界上有关珊瑚礁状况的最广泛的时间序列数据（1985年至2012年对214个珊瑚礁进行了2258次调查），我们发现珊瑚的覆盖率从28.0％下降至13.8％（y〜（-1）为0.53％），损失了最初珊瑚覆盖的50.7％。热带气旋，荆棘冠海星（COTS）捕食珊瑚和珊瑚褪色分别占各自估计损失的48％，42％和10％，相当于y〜（-1）死亡率。重要的是，相对原始的北部地区没有整体下降。在没有旋风，COTS和漂白的情况下，估计的珊瑚覆盖率增加为2.85％y〜（-1），这表明珊瑚礁具有足够的恢复能力。在没有COTS的情况下，尽管旋风和漂白造成的持续损失，珊瑚覆盖率仍将以0.89％y〜（-1）增长。因此，通过改善水质和制定替代性控制措施来减少COTS数量可以防止珊瑚进一步下降，并改善大堡礁的前景。但是，只有在气候条件稳定的情况下，这样的策略才能成功，否则漂白和旋风造成的损失将会增加。

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